China posts higher-than-expected exports growth in December

BEIJING
—
China’s
exports
rose
more
than
expected
in
December,
but
failed
to
offset
an
overall
decline
for
2023,
customs
data
showed
Friday.

Exports
rose
by
2.3%
year
on
year
in
U.S.
dollar
terms
last
month,
more
than
the
1.7%
increase
forecast
by
a
Reuters
poll.

For
2023,
exports
fell
4.6%
while
imports
dropped
5.5%,
according
to
customs
data.

Imports
rose
by
0.2%
in
December
from
a
year
earlier
in
U.S.
dollar
terms.
That’s
slightly
less
than
the
0.3%
increase
expected
by
analysts
polled
by
Reuters.

Demand
for
Chinese
goods
has
fallen
amid
slower
global
growth,
and
the
country’s
trade
with
its
major
partners
declined
in
2023.

The
Association
of
Southeast
Asian
Nations
was
China’s
largest
trading
partner
on
a
regional
basis
in
2023,
followed
by
the
European
Union.

Among
countries,
the
U.S.
remained
China’s
largest
trading
partner.

Russia
was
a
rare
bright
spot,
with
China’s
exports
to
the
country
climbing
nearly
47%
in
2023,
and
imports
rising
almost
13%.

“Chinese
manufacturers
anticipate
production
to
rise
over
the
course
of
2024
amid
forecasts
of
firmer
global
demand,
higher
client
spending
and
new
product
investment,”
Caixin
said
in
a
release
for
its
December
manufacturing
purchasing
managers’
index.

The
index
showed
mild
improvement
from
November.
“However,
the
degree
of
optimism
softened
from
November
and
remained
below
the
series
average.”

The
report
also
noted
a
decline
in
the
employment
sub-index.
“Firms
often
mentioned
that
they
had
opted
not
to
replace
voluntary
leavers
or
trimmed
headcounts
as
demand
was
more
subdued
than
expected,”
the
Caixin
analysis
said.

“Our
base
case
is
for
exports
to
rise
2%
in
2024
after
falling
5%
[in
2023].
If
exports
slow
more
than
expected,
policymakers
would
turn
more
proactive
in
terms
of
domestic
policy
supports,”
Macquarie’s
Chief
China
Economist
Larry
Hu
said
in
a
Jan.
5
report.

Autos
have
been
a
bright
spot
in
China’s
recent
trade
data.
The
country

is
expected
to
have
surpassed
Japan
as
the
world’s
largest
exporter
of
cars
in
2023.

Rapid
growth
in
the
electric
car
market
as
well
as
demand
from
Russia
have
helped
boost
China’s
auto
exports,
said
Sarah
Tan,
economist
at
Moody’s
Analytics.

“After
Russia’s
invasion
of
Ukraine
in
February
2022,
many
auto
manufacturers
had
left
the
country
only
to
have
that
gap
filled
by
Chinese
manufacturers,”
she
said
in
an
email.
“In
the
first
eleven
months
of
2023,
auto
shipments
to
Russia
rose
about
six
times
that
of
2022
in
value
terms.”