Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
and
Chinese
President
Xi
Jinping
at
a
signing
ceremony
after
their
talks
at
the
Kremlin
in
Moscow
on
March
21,
2023.

Vladimir
Astapkovich
|
AFP
|
Getty
Images

China
faces
a
“daunting”
challenge
when
it
comes
to
attempting
to
broker
a
peace
deal
between
Ukraine
and
Russia,
according
to
political
analysts,
with
the
country
walking
a
diplomatic
tightrope
between
appearing
neutral
enough
to
gain
Kyiv’s
trust
and
ensuring
any
deal
doesn’t
hurt
its
allies
in
Moscow.

Beijing

which
has
sent
representatives
to
Ukraine,
Russia
and
several
European
countries
this
week
in
a
bid
to
lay
the
groundwork
for
peace
talks

has
a
particular
vested
interest
in
Moscow
not
looking
like
it
has
been
“defeated”
in
any
settlement
as
this
could
backfire
on
Beijing,
analysts
note.

“A
total
Russian
defeat
does
not
serve
Chinese
interest,
especially
if
it
leads
to
[President
Vladimir]
Putin’s
demise,”
Bonnie
Glaser,
director
of
the
Asia
Program
at
the
German
Marshall
Fund
(GMF)
of
the
United
States,
told
CNBC
Tuesday.

“Russia
is
an
increasingly
important
partner
for
[Chinese
President]
Xi
Jinping.
There
is
no
other
country
that
can
help
weaken
U.S.
leadership
in
the
world
and
revise
the
international
order,”
she
added.

Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
and
China’s
President
Xi
Jinping
leave
after
a
reception
following
their
talks
at
the
Kremlin
in
Moscow
on
March
21,
2023.

Pavel
Byrkin
|
Afp
|
Getty
Images

China
is
stepping
up
efforts
to
bring
Russia
and
Ukraine
to
the
negotiating
table
with
China’s
special
representative
on
Eurasian
affairs,
Li
Hui,
visiting
Europe
this
week
for
talks
“on
a
political
settlement
of
the
Ukraine
crisis,”
China’s
foreign
ministry
said.

Russia
launched
its
unprovoked
invasion
of
Ukraine
in
February
2022
and

after
months
of
attritional
warfare,
the
conflict
is
poised
to
enter
a
new
phase
,
with
Western-backed
Ukraine
expected
to
launch
a
massive
counter-offensive
to
take
back
occupied
territory
in
the
east
and
south
of
the
country.

China
is
widely
considered
to
have
backed
Russia
during
the
war,
refusing
to
condemn
the
invasion
and
committing
to
deepening
its
strategic
cooperation
with
the
country,

although
Moscow
is
seen
by
most
analysts
as
the
subservient,
junior
partner
in
the
relationship.

One
of
the
main
factors
that
binds
China
and
Moscow
is
a
shared
and
deeply-held
antipathy
and
distrust
of
the
West,
with
both
critical
of
the
U.S.’
dominance
in
global
affairs.

Against
this
backdrop,
Moscow
and
Beijing
have
remained
conspicuously
close
throughout
the
war
with
Xi
and
Putin
holding
numerous
calls
and
a
state
visit
in
March.
In
contrast,
Xi
only
called
his
Ukrainian
counterpart
Volodymyr
Zelenskyy
for
the
first
time
in
April.

Ukraine’s
President
Volodymyr
Zelenskyy
speaks
with
Chinese
President
Xi
Jinping
via
phone
line,
in
Kyiv
on
April
26,
2023.

Ukrainian
Presidential
Press
Service
|
Reuters

There’s
no
doubt
that
China
wants
the
war
to
end,
seeing
it
as
an
unwelcome
crisis
that
is
affecting
the
global
economy.
But
it
also
contains
the
potential
for
political
danger
for
China
as
well,
with
a
defeated
Russia
seen
to
be
very
vulnerable
to
political
instability,
disorder
and
even
regime
change.

As
such,

China’s
move
to
broker
peace
between
Russia
and
Ukraine
is
not
seen
as
an
altruistic
one
but
motivated
by
self-interest
.
That
interest
stretches
to
ensuring
its
neighbor
and
ally
Russia
doesn’t
look
like
it
has
been
humiliated
and
“defeated”
in
any
peace
deal
with
Ukraine.
By
managing
the
negotiation
process,
China
can
see
that
it
doesn’t,
analysts
note.

“There
will
definitely
be
an
important
face-saving
component
to
any
Chinese
peace-brokering
efforts,”
Etienne
Soula,
a
research
analyst
with
GMF’s
Alliance
for
Securing
Democracy
focusing
on
China,
told
CNBC,
adding
that
“Beijing
will
likely
try
to
help
Russia
concede
as
little
as
possible
while
convincing
the
Ukrainians
and
their
Western
supporters
to
bury
the
hatchet.”

Crucially
for
China,
a
humiliated
Russia
would
reflect
poorly
on
its
own
ambitions
to
challenge
the
perceived
hegemony
of
the
West.

“China’s
narrative
about
its
own
rise
to
the
center
of
global
governance
is
contingent
upon
the
matching
idea
that
Western
democracies,
and
the
United
States
in
particular,
are
declining
irreversibly,”
Soula
said.

“Having
those
countries
defeat
one
of
the
largest
autocracies
in
the
world,
a
nuclear-armed
Security
Council
member,
via
proxy,
without
even
having
boots
on
the
ground,
would
be
a
big
setback
for
the
story
China
tries
to
tell
the
world
about
the
future.”

CNBC
has
contacted
China’s
foreign
ministry
for
a
response
to
the
comments
and
is
yet
to
receive
a
reply.


‘Daunting
challenge’

China’s
latest
foray
into
the
arena
of
global
diplomacy
comes
after

a
recent
success
in
brokering
a
deal
between
Middle-Eastern
nemeses
Saudi
Arabia
and
Iran

in
which
they agreed
to
resume
diplomatic
relations
and
reopen
embassies
in
each
other’s
countries.

Replicating
that
achievement
between
Ukraine
and
Russia
will
be
much
harder,
analysts
say,
noting
that
Beijing
has
a
mountain
to
climb
persuading
both
sides
to
reach
an
agreement
when
there’s
such
bad
blood
between
them,
and
when
so
much
is
at
stake.

A
view
of
the
graveyard
where
fallen
Ukrainian
soldiers
are
buried,
including
Gennady
Kovshyk,
a
soldier
of
the
92nd
Separate
Mechanized
Brigade,
in
Kharkiv,
Ukraine,
on
Feb.
16,
2023.

Sofia
Bobok
|
Anadolu
Agency
|
Getty
Images

Ukraine
has
said
any
settlement
to
the
war
must
center
on
Russian
troops
withdrawing
from
occupied
areas
and
for
its
territorial
sovereignty
to
be
restored,

including
the
return
of
four
regions
Russia
declared
it
had
annexed
last
September,

as
well
as
Crimea,
which
was
annexed
in
2014.

Russia,
meanwhile,
demands
that
Kyiv
recognizes
Russia’s
sovereignty
over
the
annexed
regions
and
accepts
independence
for
pro-Russian
separatist
“republics”
in
Luhansk
and
Donetsk
in
eastern
Ukraine.
Moscow
also
wants
to
see
a
“de-militarized”
Ukraine,
including
guarantees
it
will
never
join
NATO.

While
there
may
be
some
wiggle
room
for
negotiations;
Ukraine
has
said
it
could
consider
security
guarantees
from
Western
allies
instead
of
NATO
membership,
for
example;
both
sides
have
little
appetite
for
concessions,
particularly
territorial
ones.

After
all,
Ukraine’s
sovereignty
and
territorial
existence
depends
on
the
outcome
of
the
war,
while
Putin
has
arguably
staked
his
whole
regime,
and
Russia’s
sense
of
self,
on
defeating
Ukraine
and
its
Western
backers,
who
he
claims
want
to
“destroy”
Russia.

“China’s
recent
success
in
mediating
between
Iran
and
Saudi
Arabia
shows
that
it
has
the
ability
to
navigate
between
long-term
enemies.
But,
mediating
between
Ukraine
and
Russia
will
be
a
much
more
daunting
challenge,”
Cheng
Chen,
professor
of
political
science
at
the
University
at
Albany,
State
University
of
New
York,
told
CNBC.

“Since
Xi
specifically
mentioned
the
importance
of
sovereignty
in
his
phone
call
with
Zelenskyy,
it
is
unlikely
China
will
side
with
Russia
demanding
outright
territorial
concessions
from
Ukraine.
Nevertheless,
China
will
try
hard
to
make
sure
whatever
deal
that
materializes
would
not
appear
humiliating
to
Russia
in
any
obvious
way,”
she
added.