watch
now
There’s
a
40%
chance
President
Joe
Biden
will
not
seek
reelection,
according
to
Stifel.
Brian
Gardner,
the
firm’s
chief
Washington
policy
strategist,
is
out
with
a
research
note
that
calls
it
a
“make
or
break
week”
for
the
president’s
campaign
as
Congress
returns
from
its
Fourth
of
July
recess.
“There’s
a
60%
chance,
more
likely
than
not,
that
he’s
going
to
stay
in,”
Gardner
told
CNBC’s
“Fast
Money”
on
Monday.
“Biden
loves
to
prove
the
smart
kids
in
the
Democratic
Party
wrong.
So,
the
more
he
hears
voices
from
the
elites
that
he
needs
to
get
out,
the
more
he
digs
in
his
heels.”
Gardner,
who
advises
equity
analysts
on
how
White
House
policy
could
affect
their
coverage
areas,
thinks
Democrats
who
are
urging
Biden
to
drop
out
face
a
considerable
obstacle.
“They
lack
leverage.
They
can
try
to
persuade
Mr.
Biden
to
drop
out
of
the
race,
but
they
cannot
force
him
out,”
Gardner
told
clients
on
Monday.
“It
is
a
fantasy
to
think
that
at
least
half
of
Mr.
Biden’s
most
dedicated
supporters
will
turn
on
him
and
not
vote
to
nominate
him.”
While
concerns
about
the
president’s
age
have
persisted
throughout
his
latest
bid
for
the
Oval
Office,
a
poor
debate
performance
in
June
has
changed
the
tenor
of
the
conversation.
Polling
data
and
financial
markets
are
starting
to
reflect
a
shift
in
sentiment
that
favors
former
President
Donald
Trump.
If
Biden
stays
in
the
race,
however,
Gardner
contends
the
Democratic
Party
may
still
see
a
favorable
outcome.
“There’s
a
certain
level
of
voter
that
is
just
never
going
to
vote
for
Donald
Trump
no
matter
what,”
Gardner
said.
