Taiwan
President
Lai
Ching-te
claps
while
he
visits
a
military
camp
in
Taoyuan,
Taiwan
May
23,
2024. 

Ann
Wang
|
Reuters

Taiwan
is
under
growing
pressure
to
build
up
its
defense
capabilities
and
deterrence
against
China
in
the
face
of
uncertainty
surrounding
the
U.S.
elections
slated
for
November,
according
to
security
and
policy
analysts. 

Taiwan’s
foreign
minister,
Lin
Chia-lung,

last
month
told
reporters

that
the
self-governed
island
must
rely
on
itself
for
defense
and
will
likely
keep
spending
and
modernizing
its
military
in
the
face
of
threats
from
China,
which
sees
the
island
as
its
own.

The
minister’s
comments
came
in
response
to
presidential
candidate
Donald
Trump
suggesting
that

Taipei
should
pay
Washington
for
military
protection
.
Trump
said
that
the
country
“doesn’t
give
us
anything”
and
has
taken
“100%
of
our
chip
business.” 

Experts
said
Trump’s
remarks
highlighted
the
unpredictability
that
faces
Taiwan,
especially
after
President
Joe
Biden
dropped
out
of
the
race
and
endorsed
his
vice
president,
Kamala
Harris,
who
has
relatively
less
foreign
policy
experience.


‘Unpredictable’
Trump 

While
Biden
has
been
“more
consistent
in
his
policy
toward
Taiwan,”
Trump,
since
the
start
of
his
first
term,
has
proven
to
be
“erratic
and
unpredictable,”
said
Stephen
Naggy,
professor
of
politics
and
international
studies
at
the
International
Christian
University
in
Tokyo,
Japan.

This
is
largely
due
to
a
difference
in
strategy
between
the
two
leaders.
While
Biden
has,
on
several
occasions,
stated
the
U.S.
would
come
to
Taiwan’s
defense,
Trump
has
opted
for
“strategic
ambiguity,”
Naggy
added. 

Just
days
after
his
inauguration,
Trump
had
become
the
first
U.S.
president
in
decades
to

communicate
directly
with
Taiwan
‘s

president

Soon
after,
he
suggested
that
the
U.S.
may

change
its
long-held
position

that
Taiwan
was
part
of
“one
China.”
However,
he

reportedly
walked
back
on
that
position

on
a
call
with
Chinese
President
Xi
Jinping
in
February
2016. 

Asian chipmakers under pressure after Trump says Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense


watch
now

Regardless,
Trump’s
tough
stance
on
China
has
led
many
in
Taiwan
to
believe
he
would
support
the
island
substantially,
according
to
Lu-Chung
Weng, a
Political
Science
professor
at
Sam
Houston
State
University.

Similar
to
2016,
the
candidate
is
running
on

a
tough-on-China
policy

and
has
already
proposed
a
major
ramp-up
of
his
trade
war
against
the
country. 

According
to
Muhammad
Faizal,
a
research
fellow
at
Singapore-based
S.
Rajaratnam
School
of
International
Studies,
a
tougher
China
containment
stance
by
Trump
2.0
would
be
welcomed
by
the
ruling
party
of
Taiwan
and
other
Indo-Pacific
partners. 

However,
he
added
that
they
also
fear
that
Trump’s
“myopic
and
transactional
approach”
to
foreign
and
defense
relations

exemplified
by
his
comments
about
Taiwan
paying
the
U.S.
for
defense

could
place
them
back
on
his
geopolitical
dartboard.

Meanwhile,
while
experts
who
spoke
to
CNBC
agreed
that
a
second
Trump
administration
was
likely
to
be
packed
with

China
hawks

who
see
defending
Taiwan
as
a
top
priority,
the
extent
to
which
they
may
be
able
to
steer
policy
remains
unclear. 

“I
think
anyone
who
says
they’re
sure
where
[the
administration]
would
head
is
out
of
their
mind

I
think
the
degree
of
unpredictability
would
be
greater
than
ever,”
said
Richard
Heydarian,
policy
adviser
and
senior
lecturer
of
international
affairs
at
the
University
of
the
Philippines.


Harris’
statecraft?

On
the
other
side
of
the
ballot
is
presumptive
democratic
nominee
Harris,
after
Biden
succumbed
to
pressure
to
drop
out
of
the
race
amid
concerns
about
his
age. 

According
to
analysts,
she
is
expected
to
remain
somewhat
consistent
with
Biden’s
agenda
and
foreign
policy. 

Fordham: Kamala Harris is a continuity play for foreign policy


watch
now

“I
see
[Harris]
as
a
continuity
play
in
terms
of
foreign
policy
trends
more
broadly
over
the
last
several
decades,”
Tina
Fordham,
founder
of
Fordham
Global
Foresight,
told
CNBC’s
Worldwide
Exchange

last
month. 

Dewardric
McNeal,
managing
director
and
senior
policy
analyst
at
Longview
Global,
said
there
was
a
lack
of
clarity
on
exactly
what
Harris
thinks
as
distinct
from
Biden,
with
her
first
100
days
to
be
closely
watched
by
Beijing
if
she
were
to
win.

As
vice
president,
Harris
has

expressed
support
for
Taiwan

and

met
with
the
island’s
new
leader
,
Lai
Ching-te,
in
2022.
However,
she
would
come
into
office
with
significantly
less
foreign
policy
experience
than
President
Biden.  

“While
I
anticipate
some
continuity
[with
Biden]
in
her
China
policy,
it
is
essential
to
recognize
the
strong
influence
that
personalities
have
on
policy
shaping,
making,
and
execution,”
McNeal
said. 

“Vice
President
Harris
is
not
Joe
Biden,
and
her
approach
to
statecraft
will
differ,”
he
added. 


Taiwan’s
defense measures

As
both
candidates
pose
a
level
of
uncertainty
for
Taiwan,
policy
experts
said
the
island-nation
was
under
more
pressure
to
accelerate
efforts
to
build
up
its
own
deterrence.

These
efforts
have
already
been
building
momentum
since
the
election
of
Lai
in
January,
with
U.S.
elections
only
injecting
more
urgency,
according
to
Ava
Shen,
who
covers
Taiwan
and
Chinese
foreign
policy
and
domestic
politics
at
Eurasia
Group. 

Lai,
a
member
of
Taiwan’s
Democratic
Progressive
Party,
is
seen
by
Beijing

as
a
separatist

and
has
continued
his
predecessor’s
efforts
of
relationship
building
with
Washington
amid
intensifying

military
and
political
pressure

by
China. 

His
inaugural
speech
emphasized
the
importance
of

aligning
with
democracies
and
strengthening
national
defense
.
Around
the
same
time,
an

extended
one-year
mandatory
military
service

for
men
came
into
effect,
an
initiative
announced
under
former
DPP
president
Tsai
Ing-wen. 

The 'Taiwan question' is as worrying as ever, academic says


watch
now

Meanwhile,
Taiwan
has
been
raising
total
spending
on
defense
in
its
annual
budgets,
with
the
amount
reaching
2.6%
of
GDP
this
year,
and
another
proposed
increase
for
2025,
according
to
local
reports.

Bolstering
defense
has
entailed

securing
more
weapons

from
the
U.S.
As
of
February
this
year,
the
country
was
waiting
on
a
backlog
of
some

$19
billion
worth

of
already-purchased
American
weapons,
according
to
the
Cato
Institute.

A
bipartisan
delegation
of
U.S.
lawmakers
met
with
Lai
in
May,

promising
that
weapons
and
$2
billion
of
a
support
package

for
Taiwan’s
military
was
on
the
way.

China’s
latest
official
defense
budget
was
$224
billion,
about
12
times
that
of
Taiwan’s,
according
to
a

report
from
the
Council
for
Foreign
Relations.

“In
general,
the
government
and
society
of
Taiwan
feel
a
certain
degree
of
disquiet
or
anxiety,”
said
Kwei-Bo
Huang,
professor
of
diplomacy
at
Taiwan’s
National
ChengChi
University
and
secretary-general
of
the
Taiwan-based
Association
of
Foreign
Relations. 

He
added
that
in
the
event
of
a
Trump
victory,
Taiwan
is
expected
to
continue
to
expand
its
defense
budget
to
at
least
3%
of
its
GDP,
which
is
at
par
with
what
the
former
president’s
advisors

are
reportedly

considering
asking
NATO
members.

According
to
Professor
Lu-Chung
of
Sam
Houston
State
University,
while
the
U.S.
elections
are
certainly
bringing
more
pressure
on
Taiwan
to
boost
deterrence,
this
is
beneficial
for
the
country,
as
it
must
grapple
with
tough
realities.

“As
to
the
self-defense
plan,
Taiwan
will
continue
what
it
is
doing,
but
filling
the
gaps
across
the
Taiwan
Strait
is
not
easy,”
he
said.



CNBC’s
Zenith
Wong
contributed
to
this
report.