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Bitcoin
had
a
huge
rally
in
2023,
with
the
digital
currency
up
some
152%
for
the
year.
And
a
number
of
commentators
CNBC
spoke
to
—
both
inside
and
outside
of
the
cryptocurrency
industry
—
expect
the
rise
to
continue.
After
hitting
a
record
high
in
2021,
bitcoin
had
a
rough
2022,
which
was
marked
by
the
collapse
of
high-profile
projects,
liquidity
issues
and
bankruptcies.
That
year,
FTX,
once
one
of
the
world’s
largest
cryptocurrency
exchanges,
filed
for
bankruptcy.
In
2023,
its
founder
Sam
Bankman-Fried
was
found
guilty of
all
seven
criminal
counts
brought
against
him
by
federal
prosecutors
in
the
U.S.
Also
in
2023,
Binance’s
Changpeng
Zhao
pleaded
guilty
to
criminal
charges
and
stepped
down
as
the
company’s
CEO
as
part
of
a
$4.3
billion
settlement
with
the
Department
of
Justice.
Now
that
those
two
high-profile
cases
are
out
the
way,
many
cryptocurrency
executives
see
it
as
a
chance
to
move
forward
and
draw
a
line
under
the
bad
behavior
of
two
of
the
industry’s
poster
children.
With
fervor
returning
to
the
crypto
markets,
industry
executives
are
calling
the
start
of
a
new
bull
run,
mainly
predicated
on
two
things
—
the
bitcoin
“halving”
and
the
potential
approval
of
a
bitcoin
exchange-traded
fund
in
the
U.S.
The
halving,
which
happens
every
four
years,
is
an
event
written
in
bitcoin’s
code.
The
rewards
so-called
miners
get
for
mining
bitcoin
is
cut
in
half.
This
keeps
a
cap
on
supply
of
bitcoin,
of
which
there
will
only
ever
be
21
million.
In
previous
price
cycles,
halving
preceded
a
rise
in
the
price
of
bitcoin.
Meanwhile,
there
is
growing
excitement
that
the
U.S.
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
will
approve
the
first
ever
bitcoin
ETF,
after
years
of
opposition.
This
would
mean
investors
can
buy
a
product
that
tracks
the
price
of
bitcoin,
without
having
to
go
on
to
an
exchange
and
hold
the
digital
currency
directly.
The
industry
is
hoping
this
will
draw
in
a
wider
range
of
investors,
and
in
particular,
large
institutional
investors.
With
all
of
this
excitement
comes
some
quite
bold
predictions
about
bitcoin’s
price.
Here’s
a
selection
of
some
of
them.
Mark
Mobius:
$60,000
In
2022,
Mark
Mobius
correctly
forecast
bitcoin
would
drop
to
$20,000
when
it
was
trading
above
$28,000.
He
had
a
price
call
of
$10,000
thereafter,
which
he
stuck
to
in
2023.
However,
that
did
not
materialize,
as
bitcoin
rallied.
For
2024,
Mobius
told
CNBC
that
bitcoin
could
reach
$60,000
by
the
end
of
the
year.
“No
rationale
for
that
prediction,”
Mobius
said,
except
that
a
bitcoin
ETF
looks
likely
and
“that
has
heightened
interest”
in
the
cryptocurrency.
Bit
Mining:
$75,000
Youwei
Yang,
chief
economist
of
crypto
mining
firm
Bit
Mining,
believes
that
bitcoin
could
reach
a
high
of
$75,000
by
2024.
Yang
attributes
the
anticipated
price
rise
to
a
bitcoin
ETF
being
approved,
leading
to
higher
institutional
investment
in
bitcoin,
as
well
as
May
2024’s
bitcoin
halving,
which
would
result
in
the
bitcoin
supply
being
constrained.
“I
anticipate
the
Bitcoin
will
be
trading
around
$25K
to
$75K
in
2024,
and
$45K
to
$130K
in
2025,”
Yang
said
in
an
emailed
note.
“While
high
prices
are
possible,
not
all
investors
will
profit
due
to
market
volatility
and
the
human
tendencies
of
fear
and
greed.”
Bitcoin’s
price
performance
over
the
last
year.
Yang
said
the
ETF
approval
remains
the
biggest
story
for
bitcoin
in
2024
—
though
investors
should
hold
a
degree
of
caution
on
timing
given
the
wounds
left
by
collapses
of
major
crypto
firms
like
Luna
and
FTX,
and
as
it
is
an
election
year
when
the
topic
of
crypto
is
likely
to
become
more
of
a
political
issue.
“Timing
the
market
is
hard,
but
a
gradual
approach
—
accumulating
in
bear
markets
and
taking
profits
in
bull
markets
—
might
be
a
more
effective
strategy
for
whom
don’t
have
early-on
accumulations.”
CoinShares:
$80,000
James
Butterfill,
head
of
research
at
CoinShares,
said
the
landscape
for
digital
assets
is
set
for
“significant
change”
in
2024,
driven
by
the
potential
approval
of
bitcoin
ETFs
in
the
U.S.
“This
long-awaited
development
is
poised
to
expand
the
investor
base
for
cryptocurrencies
and
integrate
them
more
closely
with
traditional
financial
markets,”
Butterfill
told
CNBC
via
email.
“Estimations
suggest
that
a
20%
investment
increase
from
current
assets
under
management
(around
US$3
billion)
could
potentially
propel
Bitcoin
prices
to
US$80,000.”
Meanwhile,
the
scenario
of
central
banks
cutting
interest
rates
could
also
“play
a
decisive
role”
in
moving
bitcoin
higher,
Butterfill
added.
The
market
will
be
also
looking
at
factors
beyond
the
halving
—
which
he
considers
already
priced
into
bitcoin
—
that
could
influence
the
price
of
the
digital
coin
further.
“Thus,
while
the
halving
is
a
known
event,
other
elements,
particularly
the
potential
for
interest
rate
reductions,
are
likely
to
be
significant
in
shaping
Bitcoin’s
price
in
the
future,”
Butterfill
said.
Nexo:
$100,000
Antoni
Trenchev,
a
noted
bitcoin
bull
and
co-founder
of
Nexo,
a
cryptocurrency
exchange,
believes
bitcoin
could
hit
$100,000
in
2024.
In
2022,
he
called
for
bitcoin
to
hit
$100,000,
but
that
didn’t
happen.
Instead,
the
price
of
bitcoin
collapsed
that
year.
He
held
off
from
any
further
price
predictions.
But
in
a
note
in
December,
Trenchev
reinstated
his
$100,000
call
for
2024,
citing
the
halving
and
potential
approval
of
multiple
bitcoin
ETFs.
“My
expectation
for
2024
is
that
the
twin-turbo
boost
from
the
Bitcoin
halving
&
spot
ETF
approval
should
propel
Bitcoin
to
$100,000,
with
the
prospect
of
further
highs
in
2025,”
Trenchev
said
in
a
note.
“The
road
to
$100,000
will
be
lined
with
unexpected
potholes
and
double-digit
declines
as
Bitcoin.”
Trenchev
added
that
the
biggest
gains
will
come
from
digital
tokens
and
projects
“that
aren’t
even
on
the
radar
yet.”
Standard
Chartered:
$100,000
In
November,
Standard
Chartered
doubled
down
on
its
$100,000
call
for
bitcoin
made
in
April.
The
bank
said
this
will
be
driven
by
the
approval
of
numerous
ETFs.
The
halving
will
also
be
supportive
for
bitcoin,
the
bank
said.
Carol
Alexander:
$100,000
In
2022,
University
of
Sussex
professor
of
finance
Carol
Alexander
had
a
fairly
successful
run
of
calling
bitcoin’s
future
price.
She
predicted
bitcoin
would
slip
to $10,000
in
2022.
That
year,
bitcoin
fell
as
low
as
around
$15,480,
according
to
CoinDesk
data.
For
2023,
Alexander
said
bitcoin
would
rally
as
high
as
$50,000.
Bitcoin
reached
a
yearly
high
of
roughly
$44,700
in
early
December.
Alexander
told
CNBC
that
during
the
first
quarter
of
2024,
bitcoin
will
trade
within
the
$40,000
to
$55,000
range,
owing
to
“professional
traders
creating
volatility.”
The
next
stage
will
depend
on
when
the
U.S.
Securities
and
Exchange
Commission
settles
charges
against
Coinbase
and
Binance,
which
could
be
required
before
approval
of
a
bitcoin
ETF,
according
to
Alexander,
echoing
other
commentators.
The
SEC
sued
both
Coinbase
and
Binance
in
2023.
Alexander
said
settlement
of
those
charges
is
likely
in
either
the
second
or
third
quarter,
after
which
ETFs
will
be
approved
and
bitcoin’s
price
will
rise
to
$70,000,
a
new
all-time
high.
The
price
after
that
depends
on
the
abilities
of
the
ETF
providers,
such
as
Blackrock
and
Fidelity,
“to
equip
their
market
makers
not
only
to
create
the
ETFs,
but
also
to
defend
price
manipulations”
on
exchanges
which
create
“excessive
volatility.”
“Before
end
of
2024
price
could
exceed
$100k,
but
only
if
Blackrock
and
Fidelity
market
maker
algorithms
have
the
ability
to
reduce
volatility,”
Alexander
concluded.
Matrixport:
$125,000
Matrixport,
which
bills
itself
as
a
crypto
financial
services
firm,
released
a
note
in
November
projecting
that
bitcoin
would
reach
$63,140
by
April
2024
and
$125,000
by
the
end
of
next
year.
“Based
on
our
inflation
model,
the
macro
environment
is
expected
to
remain
a
robust
tailwind
for
crypto.
Another
decline
in
inflation
is
anticipated,
prompting
the
Federal
Reserve
to
likely
initiate
interest
rate
cuts,”
Matrixport
said
in
its
report.
“Combined
with
geopolitical
crosscurrents,
this
healthy
dose
of
monetary
support
should
push
Bitcoin
to
new
highs
in
2024.”
Many
commentators
see
easing
monetary
policy
as
supportive
for
bitcoin,
which
is
viewed
as
a
risky
asset.
Meanwhile,
some
see
bitcoin
as
a
sort
of
“safe
haven”
asset
to
pour
money
into
in
times
of
geopolitical
strife,
though
many
disagree
with
this
theory.
CoinFund:
Up
to
$500,000
Venture
capital
CoinFund
has
one
of
the
highest
price
calls
for
bitcoin
for
2024.
“Bitcoin
has
a
strong
inverse
correlation
with
the
dollar
and
real
yields,
and
both
are
now
going
down,”
Seth
Ginns,
managing
partner
at
CoinFund,
told
CNBC
via
email. “We
also
expect
the
follow
through
inflows
post-launch
of
the
BTC
spot
ETF,
as
well
as
growing
excitement
around
the
likely
approval
of
ETH
(ether)
spot
ETFs
later
in
2024,
will
be
quite
meaningful.”
Ginns
added
that
he
thinks
the
industry
is
in
the
process
of
“regulatory
normalization.”
Ginns
said
that
bitcoin
could
touch
$1
million
per
coin
“in
this
next
cycle,”
but
said
a
more
“reasonable
expectation”
for
2024
would
see
bitcoin
between
$250,000
and
$500,000.
