$29 flights are back as airlines race to fill seats in the off-season

FORT
WORTH,
Texas
—
Airlines
have
a
record
260
million
seats
to
fill
this
quarter,
and
to
do
it,
they’re
offering
fares
that
will
run
you
about
the
same
as
a
pair
of
movie
tickets.

Southwest
Airlines,
for
example,
last
month
offered
one-way
fares
of
$29
for
flights
early
in
the
morning
or
at
night,
just
one
example
of
airline
discounting
for
off-peak
periods.

“I
would
characterize
the
amount
of
discounting
or
sales
that
we’re
doing
today
as
a
bit
more
than
normal,”
Ryan
Green,
Southwest’s
chief
commercial
officer,
told
reporters
at
the
Skift
Aviation
Forum
earlier
this
month.
He
said
the
industry’s
increased
capacity
in
recent
months
means
there
are
more
seats
to
fill,
even
though
the
carrier’s
average
fare
was
up
in
the
last

quarter
from
a
year
ago.

Leisure
travelers,
meanwhile,
have
largely
returned
to
more
traditional
booking
patterns
after
years
of

pandemic
swings
in
demand,
leaving
airlines
looking
for
ways
to
fill
planes
outside
of
holidays
or
other
popular
travel
periods.

“Typically,
you
see
a
step
increase
in
price
at
each
seven-day
mark
before
a
flight,”
said
Scott
Keyes,
founder
of
Scott’s
Cheap
Flights,
a
flight-deal
company
that
recently
rebranded
as
Going.
But
airlines
are
either
dropping
last-minute
fares
or
not
raising
them
as
much
as
usual,
he
said.

Airlines
have
scheduled
a
record
259.8
million
seats
for
domestic
flights
in
the
fourth
quarter,
up
nearly
8%
from
last
year,
on
1.86
million
flights,
up
6%
from
2022,
according
to
aviation-data
firm
Cirium.

Getting
the
balance
right
in
the
off-season
is
a
challenge
for
airlines,
which
make
the
majority
of
their
revenue
in
the
second
and
third
quarters
during
the
busy
spring
and
summer
seasons.
Most
major
carriers
reported
record
revenue
and
strong
demand
during
those
periods,
with
some
executives
reporting
higher
growth
for

international
destinations
over
domestic
ones.

The
U.S.

inflation
read
for
September
showed
airfare
dropped
more
than
13%
from
a
year
earlier,
while
overall
consumer
prices
rose.

JetBlue
Airways
said
average
fares
dropped
more
than
12%
in
the
third
quarter
during
the
same
period
of
2022
to
$201.73.

Budget
carrier


Spirit
Airlines
said
fares
dropped
nearly
28%
from
a
year
earlier
to
$48.73,
though
non-ticket
revenue,
which
includes
add-ons
such
as
seat
selection
fees
and
checked
bags,
rose
1%
to
$67.70.

The
Miramar,
Florida-based
airline,
which
JetBlue
is
trying
to
buy,
warned
about
fare
discounting
before
Thanksgiving
and
said,
“unfortunately,
we
have
not
seen
the
anticipated
return
to
a
normal
demand
and
pricing
environment
for
the
peak
holiday
periods.”

Fellow
ultra-discounter


Frontier
Airlines
said
fares
averaged
a
little
more
than
$39
in
the
last
quarter,
down
32%
from
a
year
ago.

All
three
carriers
forecast

losses
for
the
last
three
months
of
the

year.

Declining
pricing
power
in
the
off-peak
periods
has
forced
carriers
to
rethink
where
they’re
deploying
their
planes.

Southwest
plans
to

slow
its
growth
next
year
to
address
the
shifting
demand
patterns,
though
CEO
Bob
Jordan
described
demand
on
an
earnings
call
late
last
month
as
“strong.”

“Capacity
is
the
most
precious
commodity
you
have
to
produce
revenue,
and
you
got
to
deploy
that
capacity
as
efficiently
as
possible
against
demand,”
Jordan
said
during
the
Skift
Aviation
Forum.

The
carrier
is
planning
to
fly
less
on
nonpeak
days,
like
Tuesdays,
compared
with
higher-demand
periods,
a
measure
that
also
prioritizes
crews’
time
so
they
are
ready
fly
more
when
it’s
busy,
Jordan
said.

Frontier
Airlines
CEO
Barry
Biffle
told
CNBC
that
one
thing
the
airline
is
changing
is
finding
less
crowded
markets
for
its
flights.

“We
are
concentrating
our
growth
away
from
the
saturated
markets,”
he
said.
“We
will
not
shrink
in
Orlando
and
Vegas,
but
we’re
probably
not
going
to
grow
it
either.”

With
shifting
demand
comes
those
eye-catching,
double-digit
fares.

But
they’re
usually
gone
quickly
and
are
nearly
guaranteed
to
be
unavailable
for
peak
holiday
periods,
with
demand
expected
to
hit
or
break
records.

Delta
Air
Lines
said
it
expects
to
carry
between
6.2
million
and
6.4
million
passengers
from
Nov.
17
to
Nov.
28
during
the
Thanksgiving
period,
compared
with
5.7
million
last
year
and
6.25
million
in
2019.


United
Airlines
said
it
expects
to
fly
5.9
million
passengers
from
Nov.
17
to
Nov.
29,
up
13%
from
last
year
and
5%
more
than
2019.


American
Airlines
forecast
a
record
7.8
million
travelers
from
Nov.
16
to
Nov.
28,
up
from
7
million
last
year
and
beating
out
2019
by
around
200,000
customers.

Southwest
CEO
Jordan
said
year-end
holiday
bookings
are
running
ahead
of
last
year’s
pace.

Flight
tracker
Hopper
said
“good
deal”
domestic
fares,
which
it
defines
as
the
bottom
10th
percentile
of
available
fares,
are
averaging
$248
for
Thanksgiving,
down
from
$271
last
year
and
$276
in
2019.

Airlines
are
now
poring
over
their
schedules
for
2024
to
try
to
best
use
their
aircraft
while
they
face
higher
costs
such
as
fuel
and
labor
that
have

pinched
margins.

“You’re
seeing
carriers
put
out
fares
that
look
kind
of
like
our
fares,
and
what
you
should
really
think
about
is
that
that’s
not
going
to
be
permanent,”
Frontier’s
CEO
Biffle
said,
citing
costs.

Carriers
have
gotten
more
sophisticated
about
addressing
shifting
demand
patterns,
meaning
they
can
cut
flights
or
capacity
during
travel
lulls.

Next
year,
fares
are
likely
to
stabilize,
but
it’s
too
early
to
tell
what
promotional
fares
will
be,
said
Henry
Harteveldt,
founder
of
travel
industry
consulting
firm
Atmosphere
Research
Group.

“If
inflation
really
continues
at
the
torrid
place
it
has
been,
if
we
see
hiring
soften,
airlines
may
feel
a
need
to
invest
in
deeper
promotion,”
he
said.

One
advantage
for
full-service
carriers
is
the
variety
of
fares
and
products
they
can
offer,
from no-frills
basic
economy
to
first
class,
Harteveldt.
That
means
they
could
increase
their
inventory
of
cheaper

basic
economy
fares
during
weaker
demand
periods,
or
raise
fares
when
demand
is
high
for

premium
seats.

Airlines
“have
the
most
sophisticated
cash
registers
of
any
industry,”
he
said.

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