Japan averts technical recession as revised fourth-quarter data shows economy grew 0.4%

Japan
averted
a
technical
recession
as

revised
official
data
on
Monday
showed
the
economy
returned
to
growth
in
the
October-December
period
last
year,
bolstered
by
strong
capital
expenditure.

The
upward
revisions
though
were
weaker
than
estimated,
with
private
consumption
remaining
weak.

Expectations
are
rising
that
the
Bank
of
Japan
may
normalize
interest
rates
as
early
as
its
March
18-19
meeting
amid
signs
of
robust
wage
gains
at
this
year’s
Shunto
spring
wage
negotiations
between
unions
and
employers.

Japan’s
gross
domestic
product
expanded
0.4%
in
the
fourth
quarter
compared
with
a
year
earlier,
weaker
than
consensus
expectations
for
1.1%
growth
in
a
Reuters
poll.
Provisional
data
last
month
had
showed
GDP

contracting

0.4%.
The
economy
had
contracted
3.3%
in
the
July-September
period.

Japan’s
fourth-quarter
GDP
also
expanded
0.1%
from
the
previous
three
months,
weaker
than
the
median
forecast
for
0.3%
growth
in
a
Reuters
poll.
Provisional
data
had
showed
a
0.1%
contraction.
The
economy
had
shrunk
0.8%
in
the
third
quarter
from
the
preceding
one. 

“The
upward
revision
to
GDP
growth
in
the
second
estimate
released
today
…
was
smaller
than
most
had
anticipated,”
Capital
Economics
head
of
Asia-Pacific
Marcel
Thieliant
wrote
in
a
client
note.

“While
there
was
a
large
upward
revision
to
business
investment,
from
the
initially
reported
0.1%
q/q
decline
to
a
2.0%
q/q
jump,
that
was
partly
offset
by
a
drag
from
inventories
and
a
slightly
larger
fall
in
private
consumption,”
he
said.
“Indeed,
the
figures
confirm
that
consumption
has
fallen
for
three
consecutive
quarters.”

High
inflation
has
crimped
domestic
demand
and
private
consumption
though,
underscoring
the
fragility
of
growth
in
the
country.
Private
consumption
fell
0.3%
quarter
on
quarter
—
more
than
the
provisional
estimates
of
a
0.2%
decline.

Reuters
reported
the
Bank
of
Japan
is
likely
to
downgrade
its
assessment
on
consumption
and
factory
output
at
its
next
policy
board
meeting
on
March
18-19,
citing
three
people
with
knowledge
of
the
matter.

Capital
expenditure
jumped
2%
quarter
on
quarter,
compared
with
the
provisional
0.1%
fall
the
government
had
estimated,
but
it
was
below
consensus
expectations
for
a
2.5%
increase.

Hopes
for
an
upward
GDP
revision
were
boosted
after
Ministry
of
Finance
data
released
last
Monday
showed
capital
expenditure
rose
16.4%
in
the
fourth
quarter
from
a
year
earlier,
and
10.4%
on
a
seasonally
adjusted
quarterly
basis.