Beryl set to strengthen on approach to Texas due to hot ocean temperatures

With
its
unprecedented
tear
through
the
ultrawarm
waters
of
the
southeast
Caribbean,
Beryl
turned
meteorologists’
worst
fears
of
a
souped-up
hurricane
season
into
grim
reality.
Now
it’s
Texas
turn.

Beryl
hit
Mexico’s
Yucatan
Peninsula
as
a
Category
2
hurricane
on
Friday,
then
weakened
to
a
tropical
storm.
It’s
expected
to
reach
southern
Texas
by
Sunday
night
or
Monday
morning,
regaining
hurricane
status
as
it
crosses
over
the
toasty
Gulf
of
Mexico.

National
Hurricane
Center
senior
specialist
Jack
Beven
said
Beryl
is
likely
to
make
landfall
somewhere
between
Brownsville
and
a
bit
north
of
Corpus
Christi
Monday.
The
hurricane
center
forecasts
it
will
hit
as
a
strong
Category
1
storm,
but
wrote
“this
could
be
conservative
if
Beryl
stays
over
water
longer”
than
expected.

The
waters
in
the
Gulf
of
Mexico
are
warm
enough
for
the
early-season
storm
to
rapidly
intensify,
as
it
has
several
times
before.

“We
should
not
be
surprised
if
this
is
rapidly
intensifying
before
landfall
and
it
could
become
a
major
hurricane,”
said
Weather
Underground
co-founder
Jeff
Masters,
a
former
government
hurricane
meteorologist
who
flew
into
storms.
“Category
2
may
be
more
likely
but
we
should
not
dismiss
a
Category
3
possibility.”

Beven
said
the
official
forecast
has
Beryl
gaining
17
to
23
mph
in
wind
speed
in
24
hours,
but
noted
the
storm
intensified
more
rapidly
than
forecasters
expected
earlier
in
the
Caribbean.

“People
in
southern
Texas
now
need
to
really
keep
an
eye
on
the
progress
of
Beryl,”
Beven
said.

Masters
and
University
of
Miami
hurricane
researcher
Brian
McNoldy
said
hurricane
center
forecasters
have
been
very
accurate
in
predicting
Beryl’s
track
so
far.

Already
three
times
in
its
one-week
life,
Beryl
has
gained
35
mph
in
wind
speed
in
24
hours
or
less,
the
official
weather
service
definition
of
rapid
intensification.

The
storm
zipped
from
35
mph
to
75
mph
on
June
28.
It
went
went
from
80
mph
to
115
mph
in
the
overnight
hours
of
June
29
into
June
30
and
on
July
1
it
went
from
120
mph
to
155
mph
in
just
15
hours,
according
to
hurricane
center
records.

Colorado
State
University
hurricane
researcher
Phil
Klotzbach,
using
a
different
tracking
system,
said
he
counted
eight
different
periods
when
Beryl
rapidly
intensified
—
something
that
has
only
happened
in
the
Atlantic
in
July
two
other
times.

MIT
meteorology
professor
Kerry
Emanuel
doesn’t
give
Beryl
“much
of
a
chance″
for
another
35
mph
wind
speed
jump
in
the
Gulf
of
Mexico,
but
said
it’s
a
tricky
thing
to
forecast.

Beryl’s
explosive
growth
into
an
unprecedented
early
whopper
of
a
storm
shows
the literal
hot
water the
Atlantic
and
Caribbean
are
in
right
now
and
the
figurative
hot
water
the
Atlantic
hurricane
belt
can
expect
for
the
rest
of
the
storm
season,
experts
said.

The
storm
smashed
various
records
even
before
its
major
hurricane-level
winds
approached
the
island
of
Carriacou
in
Grenada
on
Monday.

Beryl
set
the
record
for
the
earliest
Category
4
with
winds
of
at
least
130
mph
(209
kilometers
per
hour)
—
the
first-ever
category
4
in
June.
It
also
was
the
earliest
storm
to
rapidly
intensify
with
wind
speeds
jumping
63
mph
(102
kph)
in
24
hours,
going
from
an
unnamed
depression
to
a
Category
4
in
48
hours.

Colorado
State
University’s
Klotzbach
called
Beryl
a
harbinger.

Forecasters predicted
months
ago it
was
going
to
be
a
nasty
year
and
now
they
are
comparing
it
to record
busy
1933 and deadly
2005 —
the
year
of Katrina, Rita,
Wilma
and
Dennis.

“This
is
the
type
of
storm
that
we
expect
this
year,
these
outlier
things
that
happen
when
and
where
they
shouldn’t,”
University
of
Miami’s
McNoldy
said.
“Not
only
for
things
to
form
and
intensify
and
reach
higher
intensities,
but
increase
the
likelihood
of
rapid
intensification.”

Warm
water
acts
as
fuel
for
the
thunderstorms
and
clouds
that
form
hurricanes.
The
warmer
the
water
and
thus
the
air
at
the
bottom
of
the
storm,
the
better
the
chance
it
will
rise
higher
in
the
atmosphere
and
create
deeper
thunderstorms,
said
the
University
at
Albany’s
Kristen
Corbosiero.

“So
when
you
get
all
that
heat
energy
you
can
expect
some
fireworks,”
Masters
said.

Atlantic
waters
have
been record
warm
since
April
2023.
Klotzbach
said
a
high
pressure
system
that
normally
sets
up
cooling
trade
winds
collapsed
then
and
hasn’t
returned.

Corbosiero
said
scientists
are
debating
what
exactly climate
change does
to
hurricanes,
but
have
come
to
an
agreement
that
it
makes
them
more
prone
to
rapidly
intensifying,
as
Beryl
did,
and
increase
the
strongest
storms,
like
Beryl.

Emanuel
said
the
slowdown
of
Atlantic
ocean
currents,
likely
caused
by
climate
change,
may
also
be
a
factor
in
the
warm
water.

A brewing
La
Nina,
which
is
a
slight
cooling
of
the
Pacific
that
changes
weather
worldwide,
also
may
be
a
factor.
Experts
say
La
Nina
tends
to
depress
high
altitude
crosswinds
that
decapitate
hurricanes.