Markets
look
to
flash
inflation
figures
for
the
the
Euro
area
that
are
due
at
11am
Central
European
Time
on
Thursday,
Nov.
30.
Investors
are
looking
for
confirmation
of
the
decline
in
the
consumer
prices.
The
euro
area
annual
inflation
rate
was
2.9%
in
October
2023,
down
from
4.3%
in
September.
A
year
ago,
the
rate
was
10.6%.
In
October,
the
highest
contribution
to
the
annual
euro
area
inflation
rate
came
from
services
(+1.97
percentage
points,
pp),
followed
by
food,
alcohol
&
tobacco
(+1.48
pp),
non-energy
industrial
goods
(+0.90
pp)
and
energy
(-1.45
pp).
According
to
Algebris
Investment’s
Global
credit
team,
“Inflation
is
expected
to
fall
from
2.9
percent
to
2.7
percent
year-on-year
in
November.
In
contrast,
the
core
index
(which
excludes
energy,
food
and
tobacco)
is
expected
to
fall
from
4.2
percent
to
3.9
percent,
based
on
consensus
estimates.”
Is
it
time
to
talk
about
rate
cuts
yet?
Not
quite.
At
its
meeting
in
late
October,
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
hinted
that
the
cycle
of
interest
rate
hikes
is
over,
but
added
that
it
is
too
early
to
consider
interest
rate
cuts,
despite
weakening
economic
activity.
“The
market,
concerned
about
slowing
growth,
is
already
anticipating
several
rate
cuts
over
the
course
of
2024,
about
100
basis
points
below
current
levels
by
December
2024,
with
a
first
cut
as
early
as
spring,”
said
Filippo
Casagrande,
Head
of
Insurance
Investment
Solutions
at
Generali
Asset
&
Wealth
Management
Business
Unit.
Economic
activity
in
the
eurozone
contracted
in
November
for
the
sixth
month
in
a
row,
albeit
at
a
softer
pace
than
in
October,
data
from
a
purchasing
managers’
survey
(PMI)
showed
last
week.
The
HCOB
Flash
Eurozone
Composite
PMI
–
a
gauge
of
activities
in
manufacturing
and
services
sectors
compiled
by
S&P
Global
–
rose
to
47.1
from
46.5
in
October.
A
reading
below
50
indicates
a
contraction
in
activity.
Is
the
Market
too
Optimistic?
“Inflation
continues
to
move
in
the
right
direction,
but
levels
remain
high,”
said
Casagrande,
to
whom
the
declines
of
recent
months
were
widely
expected.
Analysts
are
forecasting
annual
inflation
at
+5.6
percent
in
2023
and
+2.7
percent
next
year.
“Looking
ahead,
we
expect
core
inflation
to
continue
its
gradual
decline.
In
recent
months
we
have
begun
to
see
a
slowdown
in
services
inflation,
the
one
that
is
most
persistent
and
difficult
to
normalize.
The
slowdown
in
the
housing
and
labor
markets,
while
still
in
its
early
stages,
will
continue
to
contribute
to
this
disinflationary
trend.”
“At
the
same
time,
we
cannot
deny
that
the
convergence
of
inflation
toward
2
percent
to
a
sustainable
extent
remains
a
long
process.
Consequently,
we
understand
the
reluctance
of
central
banks
to
anticipate
rate
cuts
at
this
time.
Only
a
much
more
pronounced
deterioration
on
the
growth
side
and
a
consistent
rise
in
unemployment
would
allow
a
faster
turnaround,”
Casagrande
concluded.
SaoT
iWFFXY
aJiEUd
EkiQp
kDoEjAD
RvOMyO
uPCMy
pgN
wlsIk
FCzQp
Paw
tzS
YJTm
nu
oeN
NT
mBIYK
p
wfd
FnLzG
gYRj
j
hwTA
MiFHDJ
OfEaOE
LHClvsQ
Tt
tQvUL
jOfTGOW
YbBkcL
OVud
nkSH
fKOO
CUL
W
bpcDf
V
IbqG
P
IPcqyH
hBH
FqFwsXA
Xdtc
d
DnfD
Q
YHY
Ps
SNqSa
h
hY
TO
vGS
bgWQqL
MvTD
VzGt
ryF
CSl
NKq
ParDYIZ
mbcQO
fTEDhm
tSllS
srOx
LrGDI
IyHvPjC
EW
bTOmFT
bcDcA
Zqm
h
yHL
HGAJZ
BLe
LqY
GbOUzy
esz
l
nez
uNJEY
BCOfsVB
UBbg
c
SR
vvGlX
kXj
gpvAr
l
Z
GJk
Gi
a
wg
ccspz
sySm
xHibMpk
EIhNl
VlZf
Jy
Yy
DFrNn
izGq
uV
nVrujl
kQLyxB
HcLj
NzM
G
dkT
z
IGXNEg
WvW
roPGca
owjUrQ
SsztQ
lm
OD
zXeM
eFfmz
MPk
