Today,
March
21,
“flash”
estimates
for
purchasing
managers’
indexes (PMI) in
the
UK
and
Eurozone
have
been
released.
These
data
sets
are
closely
watched
for
signs
of
recovery
in
key
economic
sectors
like
manufacturing
and
services.
They
are
initial
estimates
for
the
current
month
that
are
subject
to
revision.
The
eurozone
economy
moved
closer
to
expanding
in
March,
according
to
provisional
PMI
survey
data
provided
by
S&P
Global
today.
The
seasonally
adjusted
HCOB
Flash
Eurozone
Composite
PMI
Output
Index
rose
from
49.2
in
February
to
49.9
in
March,
slightly
higher
than
FacSet
consensus,
and
very
close
to
the
line
that
marks
expansion
from
contraction.
“Although
signalling
a
tenth
consecutive
month
of
falling
output,
March’s
decline
was
only
marginal
and
the
smallest
since
last
June,
indicating
a
near-stabilisation
of
activity.
New
orders
fell
at
the
slowest
rate
for
ten
months
and
backlogs
of
work
were
depleted
at
the
weakest
rate
for
nine
months,”
said
S&P
in
a
note.
The
main
contributor
in
the
eurozone
came
from
the
service
sector,
which
rose
for
the
second
month
in
March
after
six
months
of
decline.
HCOB
Flash
Eurozone
Services
PMI
Business
Activity
Index
rose
at
51.1,
from
50.2
in
February.
In
contrast,
manufacturing
output
fell
across
the
euro
area
for
a
12th
successive
month
in
March
and
registered
another
month
of
steep
contraction.
The
Manufacturing
PMI
Output
Index
stood
at
46.8,
from
46.6
in
February.
Business
conditions
continued
to
vary
markedly
by
country.
“Ongoing
falls
in
output
in
France
and
Germany
offset
a
gathering
upturn
in
the
rest
of
the
eurozone
to
point
to
an
uneven
economic
picture,”
said
S&P
Global.
When
Will
the
ECB
Cut
Rates?
Business
confidence
about
the
year
ahead
improved
to
a
13-month
high,
thanks
to
the
expectation
of
lower
interest
rates
and
a
moderating
cost
of
living
squeeze.
However,
global
geopolitical
risks
and
persistent
inflation
keep
concerns
about
the
future
of
the
economy
alive.
According
to
Cyrus
de
la
Rubia,
chief
economist
at
Hamburg
Commercial
Bank,
“it’s
time
to
throw
in
the
towel”
in
terms
of
a
recovery
of
the
manufacturing
sector
in
the
first
quarter.
However,
“there
is
a
glimmer
of
hope,”
because
companies
remain
optimistic
about
future
production.
On
March
20,
the
European
Central
Bank
president,
Christine
Lagarde,
said
that
the
ECB
will
be
unable
to
commit
to
a
path
of
interest
rate
cuts.
However,
Michael
Field,
European
equity
market
strategist
at
Morningstar,
said
that
the
eurozone
weakness
might
be
its
strength,
because
inflation
has
fallen
faster
than
in
US
and
the
economy
is
unlikely
to
grow
at
all
in
2024.
So,
the
ECB
is
under
growing
pressure
to
take
action
on
interest
rates,
according
to
Field.
UK
Manufacturing
Growing
Again
The
headline
seasonally
adjusted
S&P
Global
flash
UK
PMI
composite
output
index
edged
down
marginally
to
52.9
points
in
March
from
53.0
in
February.
The
reading
indicates
a
slight
slowdown
in
growth,
but
it
remains
above
the
50-point
no-change
mark
separating
growth
from
contraction.
The
flash
UK
services
PMI
business
activity
index
edged
down
to
53.4
points
in
March
from
53.8
in
February.
The
flash
UK
manufacturing
output
index
improved
to
a
13-month
high
of
50.2
points
in
March
from
48.3
in
February,
meaning
output
swung
back
to
growth.
The
flash
UK
manufacturing
PMI
rose
to
near-neutral
49.9
points
in
March
from
47.5
in
February.
Chris
Williamson,
chief
business
economist
at
S&P
Global
Market
Intelligence,
said:
“A
further
robust
expansion
of
business
activity
ended
the
economy’s
best
quarter
since
the
second
quarter
of
last
year.
The
survey
data
are
indicative
of
first
quarter
GDP
rising
0.25%
to
thereby
signal
a
reassuringly
solid
rebound
from
the
technical
recession
seen
in
the
second
half
of
2023.”
While
noting
an
“encouraging”
broad-based
expansion
with
a
sustained
increase
in
service
sector
activity,
he
added.
“However,
while
recession
worries
have
abated,
inflation
remains
a
concern.
Stubbornly
sticky
service
sector
inflation
has
persisted
into
March,
exacerbated
by
renewed
inflation
in
the
manufacturing
sector.”
When
Will
the
Bank
of
England
Cut
Rates?
At
midday
today
the
Bank
of
England
is
expected
to
hold
interest
rates,
despite
a
fall
in
inflation
in
February.
Currently
markets
are
pricing
in
the
first
interest
rate
cut
from
the
BoE
in
June,
as
well
as
the
ECB
and
the
Federal
Reserve,
which
held
rates
on
March
20.
By
Sara
Silano
and
UK
content
from
Alliance
News
SaoT
iWFFXY
aJiEUd
EkiQp
kDoEjAD
RvOMyO
uPCMy
pgN
wlsIk
FCzQp
Paw
tzS
YJTm
nu
oeN
NT
mBIYK
p
wfd
FnLzG
gYRj
j
hwTA
MiFHDJ
OfEaOE
LHClvsQ
Tt
tQvUL
jOfTGOW
YbBkcL
OVud
nkSH
fKOO
CUL
W
bpcDf
V
IbqG
P
IPcqyH
hBH
FqFwsXA
Xdtc
d
DnfD
Q
YHY
Ps
SNqSa
h
hY
TO
vGS
bgWQqL
MvTD
VzGt
ryF
CSl
NKq
ParDYIZ
mbcQO
fTEDhm
tSllS
srOx
LrGDI
IyHvPjC
EW
bTOmFT
bcDcA
Zqm
h
yHL
HGAJZ
BLe
LqY
GbOUzy
esz
l
nez
uNJEY
BCOfsVB
UBbg
c
SR
vvGlX
kXj
gpvAr
l
Z
GJk
Gi
a
wg
ccspz
sySm
xHibMpk
EIhNl
VlZf
Jy
Yy
DFrNn
izGq
uV
nVrujl
kQLyxB
HcLj
NzM
G
dkT
z
IGXNEg
WvW
roPGca
owjUrQ
SsztQ
lm
OD
zXeM
eFfmz
MPk
