A
food
shopper
searches
for
vegetables
July
1,
2023
at
the
Hannaford
supermarket
in
South
Burlington,
Vermont.
Robert
Nickelsberg
|
Getty
Images
Rising
food
prices
around
the
world
may
finally
be
seeing
a
bottom
this
year.
According
to
Oxford
Economics,
global
food
prices
are
expected
to
decline
in
2024,
offering
some
relief
for
shoppers.
“Our
baseline
forecast
is
for
world
food
commodity
prices
to
register
an
annual
decline
this
year,
reducing
pressure
on
food
retail
prices
further
downstream,”
the
economic
advisory
firm
wrote
in
a
recent
note.
The
key
driving
force
behind
the
decline
in
food
commodity
prices
is
the
“abundant
supply”
for
many
important
crops,
especially
wheat
and
maize.
Bumper
harvests
in
recent
months
for
both
staple
crops
led
to
a
steady
decline
in
prices.
Wheat
futures
have
fallen
almost
10%
year-to-date,
while
maize
futures
lost
about
6%
over
the
same
period,
according
to
FactSet
data.
Farmers
ramped
up
production
of
both
wheat
and
corn
grains
following
higher
prices
after
Russia
began
its
invasion
of
Ukraine
in
2022.
As
a
result,
global
maize
harvests
for
the
marketing
year
ending
August
this
year
are
likely
to
come
in
at
record
levels,
according
to
Oxford’s
analysis.
Wheat
harvests
are
also
forecast
to
come
in
high,
although
slightly
lower
than
the
record
level
in
marketing
year
2022
to
2023,
the
Oxford
report
said.
Russia-Ukraine
war
Supply
pressures
of
grains
in
Russia
and
Ukraine
have
also
eased.
Despite
the
collapse
of
the
Black
Sea
Grain
initiative
in
July
last
year,
Ukrainian
agricultural
exports
have
been
holding
up
well,
Oxford
Economics’
Lead
Economist
Kiran
Ahmed
wrote.
Russian
wheat
exports
have
also
been
flooding
international
markets,
keeping
prices
low,
he
added.
Prices
of
wheat
and
maize
since
the
start
of
the
year
Wheat
and
maize,
along
with
rice,
account
for
over
half
of
global
caloric
intake.
That
means
the
direction
of
their
prices
will
critically
influence
consumers’
food
budgets
around
the
world,
the
report
pointed
out.
Even
though
wheat
and
corn
prices
have
seen
a
robust
decline,
rice
prices
have
been
steadily
climbing,
with
global
supplies
hampered
by
export
restrictions
imposed
by
India,
which
accounts
for
around
40%
of
the
world’s
rice
production.
Poor
harvests
in
the
country
last
year
also
pushed
prices
higher.
Contrary
to
the
slump
seen
in
wheat
and
maize
prices,
rough
rice
futures
have
gained
over
8%
year-to-date.
Global
food
prices
registered
a
decline
of
9%
in
2023,
according
to
the
World
Bank.
Similarly,
the
United
Nations
food
agency’s
world
price
index
hit
a
three-year
low
in
February,
but
saw
a
slight
rebound
in
March,
lifted
by
increases
for
dairy
products,
meat
and
vegetable
oils.
“We
expect
prices
to
fall
a
further
5.6%
this
year
before
picking
up
on
an
annual
basis
next
year,”
said
Ahmed.
That
said,
Oxford
Economics
noted
that
risks
to
its
food
price
forecast
are
still
“overwhelmingly
skewed
to
the
upside,”
with
adverse
weather
conditions
on
the
cards.
Bad
weather
has
been
denting
confidence
of
agribusinesses
and
crop
outlooks,
with
cocoa
recently
soaring
to
record
levels
as
West
African
farmers
battle
with
inclement
weather
and
disease.
If
poor
weather
conditions
persist,
harvest
prospects
could
be
impaired
in
other
key
crop
growing
regions,
the
note
added.
“However,
we
think
prices
are
now
near
a
floor
and
will
begin
to
rise
gradually
through
[the
second
half
of]
2024,”
the
report
said.
Buyers
in
Africa
and
Asia
have
also
held
back
from
purchasing
wheat
on
hopes
of
even
lower
prices
—
and
their
return
to
the
market
could
drive
a
recovery
in
prices,
Ahmed
said.
Additionally,
rice
prices,
which
remain
high,
could
also
encourage
more
export
restrictions
coming
out
of
India.
“Thus,
while
our
base
case
is
for
food
prices
to
remain
subdued
this
year,
the
risks
are
building
that
prices
could
rebound
more
sharply
than
anticipated.
This
could
keep
food
price
inflation
higher
than
in
our
base
case,
maintaining
pressure
on
the
consumer,”
he
concluded.
