Modi’s strongman rule raises questions about India’s ‘democratic decline’ as he seeks a third term

A
decade
into
power,
India’s
Prime
Minister
Narendra
Modi
appears
set
to
secure
a
rare
third
term,
with
the

general
elections
now
underway.

Under
his
rule,

India’s
economic
growth
has
been
robust
and
its

geopolitical
standing
in
the
world
has
risen.

Yet,
the
country
has
also
witnessed
signs
of
democratic
backsliding
which
has
become
apparent
during
his
leadership,
observers
and
critics
say.

“Modi
has
projected
himself
in
the
mould
of
an
East
Asia
strongman,”
Asim
Ali,
an
independent
political
researcher
in
New
Delhi,
told
CNBC.

He
has
also
been
called

“the
high
priest
of
India
—
that
he
is
above
all
politics,”
Ali
added.
“This
is
very
worrying
as
mixing
religious
nationalism
with
economic
development”
has
been
a
“central
feature”
of
his
government.  

In
its

latest
2024
report,
the
Sweden-based
V-Dem
Institute
said
a
third
Modi
term
could
worsen
the
political
situation
“given
the
already
substantial
democratic
decline
under
Modi’s
leadership
and
the
enduring
crackdown
on
minority
rights
and
civil
society.”

The
U.S.
research
group

Freedom
House
said
Indian
elections
will
be
taking
place
in
a
media
landscape
characterized
by
increasing
“legal
attacks
on
critical
journalists”
and
news
outlets.

There
is
no
question
the
“space
for
democracy
between
elections
has
shrunk”
under
Modi,
Milan
Vaishnav,
South
Asia
director
at
the
Carnegie
Endowment
for
International
Peace,
told
CNBC.

“Today,
the
liberal
character
of
India’s
democracy
is
less
apparent,”
he
added,
with
“rising
majoritarianism,
weakening
checks
on
executive
authority
and
a
growing
intolerance
for
dissent.”

Last
year,
the
government slammed
a
BBC
documentary
—
which
questioned
Modi’s
alleged
role
during
the
2002
deadly
Gujarat
riots
—
and
blocked
social
media
platforms
from

sharing any
clips
of
it.

Many
Indian
mainstream
media,
especially
the
Hindi-speaking
outlets,
have
been
“co-opted”
to
spread
propaganda
to
deliver
“the
government
message,”
according
to
Ali.

India
shuts
down
the
internet
more
than
any
other
country,
with
authorities frequently using such
tactics to
stem
political
protests
and
suppress
criticism,

rights
groups
say.

In

a
recent
Newsweek
interview,
Modi
addressed
the
issues
and
called
India
the
“mother
of
democracy.”

“Our
media
plays
an
important
role
in
this
regard,”
he
said,
dismissing
claims
of
“diminishing
media
freedom”
in
India
as
“dubious.”

The
prime
minister’s
office
and
the
ruling
Bharatiya
Janata
Party
did
not
respond
to
CNBC’s
request
for
comment.

Ahead
of
the
elections,
India’s
main
opposition
—
the
National
Congress
party
—
accused
the
Modi
government
of
freezing

its
bank
accounts.

“This
is
a
criminal
action
on
the
Congress
party
done
by
the
prime
minister
and
the
home
minister,”
said
Congress
leader

Rahul
Gandhi
in
a
fiery
attack.

“It
is
being
orchestrated
to
cripple
us
before
the
elections,”
he
claimed,
adding
the
people
were
being
“robbed
of
their
constitution
and
democratic
structure.”

The
Modi
administration
rejected
the
opposition’s
allegations.

Previous
governments
have
also
pursued
“a
witch
hunt
against
opposition
politicians,”
said
Chietigj
Bajpaee,
a
senior
research
fellow
for
South
Asia
at Chatham
House. 
 

But
the
scale
of
“actions
by
the
Modi
government
is
what
makes
it
more
alarming,”
since
it
has
“employed
key
levers
of
power”
to
intimidate
opponents,
he
added.

India’s
Supreme
Court
recently

granted
an
interim
bail
to
jailed
Delhi

chief
minister
Arvind
Kejriwal,
a
vocal
political
rival
of
Modi,
who
was
arrested
in
March under
a
bribery
case.
The
arrest
raised
eyebrows
as
he
was
the
leader
of India’s
Aam
Aadmi
Party,
a
key
player
in
a
larger

opposition
alliance.

The
timing
was
“unusual”
as
it
came
just
before
the
elections,
said
Bajpaee.
It
appears
the
government
doesn’t
“want
to
leave
any
stone
unturned”
in
its
stated
target
of
securing
400
seats
in
the
Lok
Sabha
or
lower
house
of
parliament,
he
added.

In
the
last
decade,
Modi’s
BJP
has
become
emboldened
in
pushing
its
Hindu
nationalist
ideology,
say
analysts.
The
aim
was
to
consolidate
its
support
among
the

Hindus,
who
make
up
80%
of
the
country’s
1.4
billion
population.

“The
BJP
is
an
avowedly
pro-Hindu
party,”
said
Vaishnav.
Since
coming
to
power
in
2014,
but
especially
post-2019,
it
has
“sought
to
use
law,
regulation,
and
even
civil
society
to
promote
its
agenda,”
he
added.

In
January,

Modi
inaugurated
a
controversial
temple
in
the
city
of
Ayodhya
—
at
the
site
where
an
ancient
mosque
was demolished
by
a
Hindu
mob
—
fulfilling
a
decades-long

campaign
promise.

“The
temple
issue
would
matter
in
the
Hindi-speaking
belt,
especially
to
energize
the
Hindu
base,”
said
Ali,
adding
the
government
has
also
used
“anti-Muslim”
rhetoric
during
the
election
campaign.

Modi
was
accused
of

hate
speech
recently
after
he
reportedly
called
Muslims

“infiltrators”
at
a
rally,
seen
as
undermining

India’s
secular
constitution.

The
Modi
government’s
“talk
of
establishing
a
‘Hindu
Rashtra’
or
Hindu
nation
does
indicate
ambitions
to
demolish
the
divide
between
state
and
religion,”
noted
Bajpaee,
warning
this
could
“erode
India’s
secular
credentials.”

Yet,
public
backlash
against
Modi’s
hardline
rule
has
been
limited.
His
charisma
and
persona
have
made
him
incredibly
popular
both
at
home
and

abroad.

“There’s
no
one
in
the
opposition
to
match
that
kind
of
popularity,”
said
Ronojoy
Sen,
senior
research
fellow
at
the
Institute
of
South
Asian
Studies,
in
a
recent

CNBC
interview.

Political
watchers
argue
Modi
benefitted
from

a
cult-like
status
created
around
him
—
backed
by
the
ruling
party’s
formidable
election
machinery
—
to
build
a
direct
connection
between
him
and
voters.

For
those
unhappy
with
the
country’s
direction
“to
vote
out
the
BJP
means
they
have
to
get
rid
of
Modi,”
said
Neelanjan
Sircar, a
senior
fellow
at
the
Centre
for
Policy
Research
in
New
Delhi.
That
becomes
“hard
to
do
if
voters
identify
with
him.”

His
populist
appeal
has
endured
despite
India’s
entrenched
economic
problems
such
as
rising

youth
unemployment
and

growing
wealth
inequality.

A

CSDS-Lokniti
pre-poll
survey
showed
Modi
was way
ahead
in
popularity
with
48%
of
the
respondents
picking
him
as
their
choice
for
prime
minister
compared
with
his
opposition
rivals.

India’s
economic
progress
was
not
“obviously,
worse
before
Modi
came
to
the
scene,”
noted
Sircar.
“During
Manmohan
Singh’s
time,
India
was
also
growing
very
fast,”
he
added,
referring
to
the

economic
reforms
under
the
former
prime
minister
in
the
1990s.

“What
has
changed
is
the
way
in
which
everything
is
branded
in
Modi’s
image.”

Even
the
BJP’s
manifesto
is
called
“Modi
Ki
Guarantee”
—
or
Modi’s
guarantee,
Sircar
pointed
out,
adding
that
the
entire
political
system
“is
geared
towards
positive
attribution
to
the
top.”

With
election
results
due
in
early
June,
it
has
been
widely
expected
the
prime
minister
and
the
BJP

will
cruise
to
victory
for
a
third
term,
given
India’s

feeble
opposition.

A
reelected
Modi
government
will
be
“more
forceful”
in
pushing
ahead
with
“politically
sensitive
economic
reforms
and
its
more
divisive
identity-driven
agenda,”
said
Bajpaee,
from
Chatham
House.

In
a

recent
Interview,
Modi
exuded
confidence
and
said
he
wanted
to
make
India
“the
third
economic
superpower,”
outlining
his
bold
vision.

The
Indian
leader
will
“flex
his
muscles”
to
enact
significant
legislation
on
a
strengthened
mandate,
added
Carnegie’s
Vaishnav.

“Modi
has
already
prepared
the
electorate
to
expect
‘big
changes‘
once
they’re
brought
back
to
power,”
he
added.