UK
consumer
price
inflation
cooled
faster
than
expected
last
month,
according
to
data
from
the
Office
for
National
Statistics
on
Wednesday.
The
ONS
said
the
consumer
price
index
rose
3.9%
annually
in
November,
cooling
sharply
from
the
4.6%
increase
recorded
in
October.
The
inflation
reading
came
in
below
FXStreet-cited
market
consensus
of
4.4%.
The
recent
peak
for
annual
inflation
in
the
UK
was
11.1%
in
October
2022,
which
the
ONS
estimated
to
be
the
highest
since
1981.
November’s
reading
was
the
lowest
since
September
2021.
The
largest
downward
contributions
in
November
came
from
transport,
recreation
and
culture,
and
food
and
non-alcoholic
beverages,
the
ONS
said.
On
a
monthly
basis,
prices
fell
0.2%
in
November,
having
seen
no
change
in
October.
Market
forecasts
had
been
expecting
a
0.1%
rise.
Core
consumer
prices,
which
exclude
energy,
food,
alcohol
and
tobacco,
rose
5.1%
annually,
coming
in
below
market
expectations
of
a
5.6%
rise.
They
had
increased
by
5.7%
in
October.
Expert
Reaction
Last
week
the
Bank
of
England,
while
seeing
inflation
go
in
the
right
direction,
remained
cautious,
saying
there
are
signs
of
“inflation
persistence”
in
some
areas
like
services
and
wages.
“Monetary
policy
will
need
to
be
sufficiently
restrictive
for
sufficiently
long to
return
inflation
to
the
2%
target
sustainably
in
the
medium
term.”
While
six
members
of
the
MPC
voted
for
no
change
in
rates,
three
still
backed
an
increase.
We’ve
rounded
up
the
2024
UK
interest
rate
forecasts
by
invesment
banks
(and
these
were
made
before
the
latest
inflation
data
and
the
most
recent
Bank
meeting).
Here’s
some
reaction
to
today’s
data
release.
Michael
Field,
European
market
strategist,
Morningstar:
“Although
the
magnitude
of
the
fall
in
inflation
is
something
to
be
celebrated,
particularly
by
hard-pressed
consumers,
the
fact
of
the
matter
is
that
these
same
consumers
have
been
stretched
by
the
levels
of
inflation
we
have
seen
over
the
last
two
years.
Even
over
the
last
12
months,
the
prices
of
food,
alcohol,
and
tobacco
have
all
risen
by
more
than
10%,
and
the
cost
of
restaurants
and
hotels
was
not
far
off
this
mark
at
almost
8%.
“The
level
of
inflation
in
the
UK
remains
above
that
in
the
Eurozone,
and
more
importantly,
is
still
some
way
off
the
Bank
of
England’s
2%
targeted
level.
However,
what
investors
will
undoubtedly
be
excited
about
is
the
direction
of
travel
and
the
speed
at
which
we
are
getting
there.
Although
there
is
still
a
danger
of
inflation
resurfacing
in
2024,
today’s
release
will
certainly
focus
the
Bank
of
England
members’
minds
on
rate
cuts.”
Rachel
Winter,
partner
at
Killik
&
Co,
said:
“Another
fall
in
inflation
will
be
heartening
to
investors
as
it
signals
a
return
to
economic
stability.
Steadier
prices
allow
companies
and
investors
to
plan
for
the
long
term,
boosting
market
confidence
as
we
head
towards
2024.
“Whilst
this
news
is
positive,
we
are
not
out
of
the
woods
yet.
Prices
remain
high
and
the
cost-of-living
crisis
is
still
a
present
struggle
for
many.
Likewise,
core
inflation,
a
metric
watched
closely
by
rate
setters,
isn’t
falling
as
fast
as
one
would
hope,
a
fact
that
might
have
contributed
to
Andrew
Bailey’s
comments
last
week
which
alluded
to
potential
further
rate
hikes
next
year.”
Rob
Morgan,
chief
investment
analyst
at
Charles
Stanley
said:
“We
can
expect
the
Bank
to
continue
to
talk
tough
as
it
pushes
back
on
the
view
that
price
rises
are
well
under
control
and
its
job
is
close
to
finished.
Overall,
it’s
likely
interest
rates
will
remain
in
restrictive
territory
for
most
of
2024,
but
an
initial
cut
in
the
second
or
third
quarter
is
a
strong
possibility.”
James
McManus,
chief
investment
officer
at
Nutmeg:
“Headline
inflation
needs
to
halve
yet
again,
if
it’s
to
get
close
to
the
Bank
of
England’s
elusive
2%
target.
And
the
drop
from
4%
to
2%
could
be
tougher
to
achieve
than
the
bigger
drop
we’ve
already
seen,
given
some
of
the
more
sticky
elements.
“While energy
prices
are
well
below
last
year’s
levels,
food
prices,
which
have
slowed
according
to
today’s
data,
are
still
9%
higher
than
a
year
ago.
So
food
inflation
–
perhaps
one
we
all
feel
most
acutely
in
our
weekly
shops
or
eating
out
bills
–
still
needs
to
come
down
dramatically.”
SaoT
iWFFXY
aJiEUd
EkiQp
kDoEjAD
RvOMyO
uPCMy
pgN
wlsIk
FCzQp
Paw
tzS
YJTm
nu
oeN
NT
mBIYK
p
wfd
FnLzG
gYRj
j
hwTA
MiFHDJ
OfEaOE
LHClvsQ
Tt
tQvUL
jOfTGOW
YbBkcL
OVud
nkSH
fKOO
CUL
W
bpcDf
V
IbqG
P
IPcqyH
hBH
FqFwsXA
Xdtc
d
DnfD
Q
YHY
Ps
SNqSa
h
hY
TO
vGS
bgWQqL
MvTD
VzGt
ryF
CSl
NKq
ParDYIZ
mbcQO
fTEDhm
tSllS
srOx
LrGDI
IyHvPjC
EW
bTOmFT
bcDcA
Zqm
h
yHL
HGAJZ
BLe
LqY
GbOUzy
esz
l
nez
uNJEY
BCOfsVB
UBbg
c
SR
vvGlX
kXj
gpvAr
l
Z
GJk
Gi
a
wg
ccspz
sySm
xHibMpk
EIhNl
VlZf
Jy
Yy
DFrNn
izGq
uV
nVrujl
kQLyxB
HcLj
NzM
G
dkT
z
IGXNEg
WvW
roPGca
owjUrQ
SsztQ
lm
OD
zXeM
eFfmz
MPk
