Taiwan elections: Change or continuity on the cards? China and the U.S. keep a close watch

More
than
19
million
voters
in
Taiwan
will
head
to
the
polls
on
Saturday
to
decide
if
the
ruling
Democratic
Progressive
Party
should
earn
an
unprecedented
third
consecutive
presidential
term
—
or
if
a
leadership
change
is
in
order.

The
traditional
DPP-Kuomintang
duopoly
is
being
challenged
this
year
by
the
emergence
of
former
Taipei
mayor
Ko
Wen-je
and
his
Taiwan
People’s
Party.
With
a
legislative
majority
also
at
stake
at
these
elections,
there
are
fears
of
a
hung
parliament,
which
could
hobble
policymaking
and
herald
a
return
of
notorious
confrontations
between
feuding
legislators.

With
China
intensifying
its
rhetoric
on
its
claim
over
Taiwan,
global
observers
are
billing
this
Taiwan
election
as
highly
pivotal
for
security
in
the
Asia-Pacific
at
a
time
of
testy
U.S.-China
relations.

Local
voters
though
are
mainly
concerned
about
the
incumbent
DPP’s
patchy
policy
record.
It
comes
amid
stagnant
wages
in
the
face
of
persistently
high
inflation
and
rising
home
prices
and
rent.

“In
a
two-way
presidential
race,
it’s
easy
to
frame
it
as
a
binary,
a
dichotomous,
de
facto
referendum
on
China
policy.
When
you
have
a
three-way
race,
it
can’t
be
nearly
as
effective
a
framing,”
said
Wen-Ti
Sung,
a
non-resident
fellow
at
American
think
tank
Atlantic
Council’s
Global
China
Hub.

“That’s
why
I
talk
about
change
versus
continuity,
because
that
allows
more
variables
with
policy
issues
at
the
domestic
level
to
get
into
the
equation
more.
That’s
Ko
Wen-je’s
primary
effect
for
me,”
he
added.

Some
of
the
more
common
concerns
that
have
emerged
in
pre-election
rallies
and
debates
include
lingering
resentment
over
outgoing
President
Tsai
Ing-wen’s

controversial
rollout
of
locally
manufactured
Covid
vaccines
at
the
height
of
the
pandemic
and
criticism
of
a
perceived
broader
lack
of
transparency.

These
issues
have
helped
buoy
Ko’s
popularity
as
he
positions
himself
as
a
political
outsider.
Ko
has
picked
Cynthia
Wu,
the
eldest
daughter
of
a
prominent
business
family,
as
his
vice
presidential
nominee.

“In
particular,
young
voters,
who
typically
do
not
have
strong
party
affiliations,
arguably
care
more
about
who
can
offer
solutions
to
the
longstanding
issues
of
low
wages
and
high
housing
prices,
which
have
not
significantly
improved
over
the
past
DPP
and
KMT
administrations,”
said
Jing
Bo-jiun,
senior
research
fellow
in
Taiwan
Studies
at
the
University
of
Oxford.

The
latest

official
wage
data
show
average
monthly
regular
earnings
of
full-time
Taiwanese
employees
rose
about
2.2%
in
October
from
a
year
ago,
while
headline
inflation
was
more
than
3%
that
same
month.

“This
could
be
one
of
the
main
reasons
that
TPP’s
Ko
Wen-je
has
been
popular
among
the
young
population,
who
hope
that
this
non-traditional
politician
can
come
up
with
new
policies
to
improve
their
lives,”
Jing
added.

With
Tsai
stepping
aside
due
to
term
limits
after
serving
two
full
terms,
Ko
will
come
up
against
the
DPP’s
presidential
nominee
this
year:
Tsai’s
current
vice-president
Lai
Ching-te.
He
has
nominated
Hsiao
Bi-khim
—
most
recently
the
Taiwanese
envoy
to
the
United
States
—
as
his
vice
president.

If
Lai
and
Hsiao
win
the
Jan.
13
vote
for
the
Taiwan
presidential
office,
it
would
mark
the
first
time
any
political
party
has
stayed
in
office
for
more
than
two
consecutive
terms
since
Taiwan
introduced
direct
presidential
elections
in
1996.

The
DPP
duo
will
face
Kuomintang’s
presidential
nominee
Hou
Yu-ih
and
vice-presidential
nominee
Jaw
Shaw-kong,
who
is
a
prominent
local
television
personality
and
talk
show
host.
Hou
was
formerly
the
director-general
of
Taiwan’s
National
Police
Agency
and
the
current
mayor
of
New
Taipei
City,
the
municipality
that
encloses
the
city
of
Taipei
but
not
the
capital.

“There
is
arguably
a
more
anti-establishment
streak
among
younger
voters,
who
see
both
the
KMT
and
DPP
as
old,
ineffective,
and
even
corrupt
party
machines.
Ko’s
stronger
support
among
those
30-ish
and
lower
is
a
good
indicator
of
this,”
said
Kevin
Luo,
an
assistant
professor
in
political
science
at
University
of
Minnesota.

Risking
that
support,
the
TPP
was

in
talks
with
KMT
about
an
alliance
to
field
a
team
that
is
less
antagonistic
toward
China.
That
plan
though
dramatically
fell
apart
on
live
television
ahead
of
the
nomination
deadline
in
late
November
when
both
parties
could
not
agree
on
the
leader
for
the
joint
ticket.

This
has
led
to
concerns
the
change
vote
would
split
even
for
the
parliamentary
election,
perhaps
even
leading
to
a
hung
parliament.

“Regarding
relations
with
China
or
the
US,
my
concern
would
be
that
it
provides
an
opportunity
for
mixed
messages
from
Taiwan,
one
that
China
may
try
to
exploit,”
said
Timothy
S.
Rich,
a
professor
in
political
science
at
Western
Kentucky
University.

“Overconfidence
in
US
support
coupled
with
an
unfriendly
legislature
would
make
responding
to
a
growing
security
threat
from
China
not
only
more
difficult,
but
could
lead
to
miscalculations,”
he
added.

Chinese
President Xi
Jinping told
his
U.S.
counterpart

Joe
Biden
that
Taiwan
has
always
been
the
“most
important
and
sensitive”
issue
in
the
China-U.S.
relations
when
they
met
on
the
sidelines
of
the
APEC
leaders
summit
in
November.

“The reunification of
the
motherland
is
a
historical
inevitability,”
Xi
said
in
his

2024
New
Year’s
address,
according
to
a
CNBC
translation.

Biden
has
pledged
to
defend
Taiwan
in
the
event
of
a
China
invasion,
irking
Beijing.

Former
U.S.
House
Speaker Nancy
Pelosi
visited
Taiwan
in
2022,
becoming
the
highest-ranking
U.S.
official
to
visit
the
island
in
over
two
decades.
Her
trip
was
one
reason
that
communication
between
the
world’s
two
leading
powers
grounded
to
a
halt
before a
tentative
resumption
only
just
months
ago.

China
has
never
relinquished
its
claim
over
Taiwan
—
which
has
been
self-governing
since
the
Chinese
nationalist
party,
or
Kuomintang,
fled
to
the
island
following
its
defeat
in
the
Chinese
civil
war
in
1949.

China’s
Taiwan
affairs
office
has
characterized
the
self-ruled
island’s
election
as
a
choice
between
“peace
and
war,
prosperity
and
decline.”

The
election
comes
as
China
has escalated
military
activity in
the
Taiwan
Strait
and

other
nearby
waters
as
Beijing
presses
its
sovereignty
claims
over
an
island
it
sees
as
its
own.

Taiwan’s
DPP-led
government
has
often
accused
Beijing
of
vote
interference
either
by
military
intimidation
or
by
co-opting
Taiwan’s
business
elite
due
to
their
economic
reliance
on
China.

“Peace
is
priceless,
and
war
has
no
winners,”
said
DPP’s
Lai
at
a
pre-election
press
conference
in
Taipei
on
Tuesday.
“China
has
always
meddled
whenever
there
is
an
election
in
Taiwan,
but
this
time,
it’s
the
most
serious.”

Weeks
before
the
elections
in
late
December,

China
suspended
tax
concessions
on
12
chemical
compound
imports
from
Taiwan
in
retaliation
for
what
Beijing
deems
to
be
a
violation
of
the
Cross
Straits
Service
Trade
Agreement.

The
timing
of
China’s
probe
has
led
Taiwanese
government
officials
to
conclude
that
Beijing’s
aims
are
more
political
rather
than
economic.

“This
election
will
not
be
won
over
a
specific
policy
or
even
cross-Strait
relations,”
said
Charles
Wu,
an
assistant
professor
in
political
science
at
University
of
South
Alabama.

“It
provides
an
opportunity
to
see
if
citizens
in
Taiwan
would
still
be
willing
to
let
the
DPP
govern
the
country
for
the
next
four
years.”

Correction:
The
story
has
been
updated
to
accurately
reflect
that
former
U.S.
House
Speaker Nancy
Pelosi
visited
Taiwan
in
2022.