Taiwan’s new president will face a divided parliament. Here’s why it matters

TAIPEI
—
Taiwan’s
president-elect
Lai
Ching-te
will
face
a
split
parliament
that
will
likely
moderate
his
policy
agenda,
with
Taiwan
People’s
Party
seen
as
the
king
maker
with
eight
seats
since
neither
of
the
two
major
parties
won
an
outright
majority
in
the
113-seat
Legislative
Yuan.

It
was
a
three-way
race
among
candidates
from
the
ruling
Democratic
Progressive
Party
—
which
China
describes
as
a
“serious
threat,”
the
main
opposition
party
and
pro-Beijing
Kuomintang,
and
the
smaller
Taiwan
People’s
Party.

The
Kuomintang
won
52
seats
in
the
legislature
—
one
more
than
the
Democratic
Progressive
Party
—
and
the
KMT’s
combative
presidential
candidate
Han
Kuo-yu
could
well
be
the
party’s
choice
for
Speaker.

If
the
KMT
forms
a
coalition
with
TPP,
Han’s
rancor
—
after
being
recalled
as
Kaoshiung
mayor
and
losing
in
the
2020
presidential
election
as
KMT’s
nominee
—
may
be
tempered
by
its
prospective
coalition
partner.

While
Lai
won
the
presidential
election
on
Saturday
with
40%
of
the
popular
vote,
his
DPP
lost
10
seats
in
Taiwan’s
parliament
from
its
previous
61,
giving
up
its
majority.

At
a
post-election
press
conference,
Lai
pledged
to
stay
open-minded
in
his
governance,
while
committing
to
forging
consensus
in
a
divided
legislature.

“Because
the
KMT
did
not
win
a
majority
in
the
legislature,
they
will
be
dependent
on
the
support
of
the
TPP
to
build
a
majority
coalition,
and
if
the KMT
is
too
intransigent
and
tries
to
oppose
everything
the
Lai
administration
wants
to
do,
they
may
have
a
hard
time
sustaining
that
coalition,”
said
Sara
Newland,
an
assistant
professor
in
government
at
Smith
College
and
a
scholar
of
local
politics
in
China
and
Taiwan.

“The
TPP’s
policy
positions
aren’t
very
stable,
so
they
could
just
as
easily
cooperate
with
the
DPP
as
the
KMT
on
many
issues,”
she
added.
“And
given
their
critiques
of
the
ineffectiveness
of
the
major
parties,
I
don’t
think
it’s
in
the
TPP’s
interest
to
be
part
of
a
coalition
that
makes
the
legislative
process
grind
to
a
halt
—
this
would
just
look
really
hypocritical.”

The
outcome
could
see
Lai
embracing
a
more
restrained
China
policy
—
particularly
since
KMT
and
TPP
have
advocated
a
more
conciliatory
posture
—
even
as

Beijing
is
likely
to
ramp
up
pressure
on
Taiwan’s
government
when
Lai
is
officially
inaugurated
as
president
in
May.
The
new
parliament
will
take
office
next
month.

“Lai
refrained
from
provocative
pro-independence
rhetoric
during
the
campaign,
and
our
base
case
is
that
his
administration
will
show
continuity
with
Tsai,
who
exploited
anti-mainland
sentiment
while
avoiding
obvious
provocations,”
Gabriel
Wildau,
Teneo’s
managing
director
focusing
on
political
risk
in
China,
wrote
in
a
client’s
note.

“Beijing
will
pay
particular
attention
to
signals
from
Lai’s
inauguration
speech,”
he
added.
“Apart
from
military
exercises,
Beijing
may
also
impose
new
tariffs
or
sanction
Taiwanese
companies
that
are
political
donors
to
the
DPP.”

Beijing
has
repeatedly
labeled
Lai
as
a
“stubborn
worker
for
Taiwan
independence”
and
a
dangerous
separatist,
framing
the
election
as
a
choice
between
“peace
and
war,
prosperity
and
decline.”

The
Chinese
Communist
Party
has
refused
to
engage
with
outgoing
President
Tsai
Ing-wen
since
she
assumed
office
in
2016.
Tsai
did
not
stand
at
this
election
because
she
has
served
the
maximum
two
presidential
terms.

China
has
never
relinquished
its
claim
over
Taiwan
—
which
has
been
self-governing
since
the
Chinese
nationalist
party,
or
Kuomintang,
fled
to
the
island
following
its
defeat
in
the
Chinese
civil
war
in
1949.

The
DPP
has
not
accepted
the
so-called
“1992
Consensus,”
and
disputes
the
tacit
agreement
for
“one
China”
between
the
then-KMT
government
and
Chinese
Communist
Party
officials,
which
Beijing
assumes
as
the
basis
for
cross-Straits
engagement.

Lai
said
Saturday
he
is
committed
to
peace
in
the
Taiwan
Straits
and
open
to
resuming
talks
based
on
“parity
and
dignity”
—
though
he
made
clear
he’s
also
“determined
to
safeguard
Taiwan
from
threats and intimidation
from China.”

At
a
post-election
press
conference
on
Saturday,
Lai
committed
to
a
building
“a
new
political
environment
of
communication,
consultation,
participation,
and
cooperation”
in
the
new
legislature.

“Lai’s
statements
about
consensus-building
is
likely
not
just
because
he
only
won
40%
of
the
vote
and
wants
to
assuage
concerns
about
relations
with
China,
but
also
practical,”
said
Timothy
S.
Rich,
a
professor
in
political
science
at
Western
Kentucky
University.

The
emergence
of
Ko
Wen-je
as
Taiwan
People’s
Party’s
presidential
candidate
has
split
the
usual
DPP
and
KMT
duopoly.
It
is
owed
partly
to
rising
disenchantment
among
Taiwan’s
youths,
who
say
the
ruling
DPP
has
insufficient
regard
for
their
urgent
everyday
economic
issues.

“I
expect
(the
split
legislature)
will
mean
the
Lai
administration
will
struggle
to
pass
much
of
his
agenda
unless
either
coordinating
with
the
TPP
or
just
focusing
on
the
few
areas
where
there
may
be
broader
consensus.
The
TPP
is
in
a
great
strategic
position
to
make
or
break
Lai’s
legislative
hopes,”
Rich
added.

In
a
nod
to
issues
that
dominated
the
presidential
election
campaign,
Lai
singled
out
the
financial
sustainability
of
Taiwan’s
labor
and
health
insurance,
along
with
the
island’s
energy
transition
as
urgent
issues
that
he
will
prioritize
in
forging
consensus.

The
president-elect
also
said
he
will
appoint
the
most
qualified
professionals
and
personnel
regardless
of
political
affiliations
in
the
“spirit
of
a
democratic
alliance.”

“The
silver
lining
is
that
it
may
not
be
bad
for
Taiwan’s
democracy,”
Wei-Ting
Yen,
an
assistant
professor
in
government
at
Franklin
and
Marshall
College,
told
CNBC.

“Democracy
is
compromise.
Lai
will
be
forced
to
reach
consensus
first
before
he
can
secure
his
policy
bills.
It
may
also
constrain
him
to
be
more
moderate,”
she
added.