The
S
&
P
500
surged
to
a
new
all-time
high
on
Friday,
confirming
the
stock
market
is
in
a
bull
market
and
suggesting
the
rally
has
further
to
go
in
2024,
ahead
of
a
big
week
of
earnings
and
inflation
data.
The
S
&
P
500
rallied
more
than
1%
on
Friday,
above
both
its
closing
and
intraday
records
that
it
last
reached
in
January
2022.
The
closing
high
established
then
was
4,796.56,
while
its
intraday
high
was
4,818.62.
The
broader
index
ended
the
day
at
4,839.81.
For
investors,
it’s
an
encouraging
sign
for
equities
even
amid
lingering
concerns
of
slowing
economic
growth.
Some
worry
the
major
averages
are
overvalued
after
last
month’s
dovish
pivot
from
the
Fed
has
stocks
pricing
in
more
rate
cuts
than
central
bank
policymakers
have
indicated.
“There’s
nothing
bearish
about
new
highs,”
said
Katie
Stockton,
founder
and
managing
partner
at
Fairlead
Strategies.
“Meaning
that
when
a
major
index
like
the
S
&
P
500,
like
the
Nasdaq
100,
reaches
a
new
all
time
high,
what
it
does
is,
it
clears
the
charts
of
resistance.”
The
bullish
development
would
be
a
boon
for
more
risk-on
sectors,
Stockton
said,
including
information
technology,
communication
services,
consumer
discretionary,
as
well
as
financials
and
industrials,
all
of
which
the
technical
analyst
expects
will
outperform
in
a
constructive
market
outlook.
“In
terms
of
duration,
we’ve
actually
been
of
the
belief
that
this
year
will
be
just
generally
a
bullish
year,”
Stockton
continued.
Historical
precedent
Other
technical
analysts
are
optimistic
about
the
equity
market.
According
to
historical
precedent,
Oppenheimer’s
Ari
Wald
noted,
in
13
out
of
the
14
other
times
since
1950
that
the
S
&
P
500
took
at
least
a
year
to
reach
a
previously
set
an
all-time
high,
the
broader
index
was
higher
12
months
afterward.
In
fact,
Wald
noted
it
was
higher
by
a
median
gain
of
13%.
To
be
sure,
he
said,
the
returns
one
month
out
were
in
line
with
the
average
return,
typical
of
a
consolidation
after
a
breakout.
But,
he
said
the
returns
three
to
12
months
out
were
“especially
positive.”
“We
do
think
it’s
an
intermediate
term
positive,”
Wald
said.
“That
should
lead
to
higher
highs
over
the
coming
months,
and
a
basis
for
our
view
why
we
recommend
investors
staying
positioned
in
the
market
and
using
pullbacks
opportunistically.”
For
2024,
Wald
anticipates
the
S
&
P
500
will
end
the
year
at
the
5,400
level,
representing
a
roughly
12%
rise
from
Friday’s
close
of
4,839.81.
He
especially
favors
mid-cap
growth
stocks.
Inflation
data,
earnings
ahead
Next
week
will
also
bring
the
Fed’s
preferred
inflation
gauge
for
December,
which
is
expected
to
confirm
the
recent
trend
of
easing
inflation.
Core
personal
consumption
expenditures
price
index,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
is
expected
to
have
ticked
up
0.2%
for
the
month,
according
to
economists
polled
by
Dow
Jones.
That’s
up
from
0.1%
the
prior
month.
But
year
over
year,
that
represents
a
rise
of
3.0%,
down
from
an
increase
of
3.2%
from
the
year-ago
period
in
the
prior
month.
An
inflation
reading
in
line
or
lower
than
expectations
would
likely
be
received
positively
by
investors,
who
expect
that
further
signals
of
cooling
prices
will
put
the
Fed
on
track
for
rate
cuts
sooner,
rather
than
later.
As
it
is,
the
CME
FedWatch
Tool
shows
markets
are
currently
pricing
in
a
46%
of
a
quarter
percentage
point
rate
cut
in
March,
though
that’s
markedly
down
from
a
roughly
77%
likelihood
just
one
week
ago.
“We
still
think
that
the
rate
of
inflation
[is]
coming
down
and
with
the
economy
slowing,
that
still
gives
the
Fed
the
ability
to
start
cutting
rates,”
said
Dave
Sekera,
chief
U.S.
market
strategist
for
Morningstar
Research
Services.
“In
my
own
view,
I
just
think
that,
considering
the
Fed
was
originally
behind
when
they
started
raising
rates
when
inflation
was
rising,
I
do
think
the
Fed
needs
to
be
especially
careful
it
doesn’t
fall
behind
if
it
does
want
to
engineer
a
soft
economic
landing,”
Sekera
said.
Next
week,
the
fourth-quarter
earnings
season
will
ramp
up
with
companies
issuing
guidance
on
how
their
businesses
will
do
in
2024.
For
stock
pickers,
that
could
give
them
insight
into
which
names
could
outperform
others
within
sectors.
Week
ahead
calendar
All
times
ET.
Monday
Jan.
22
10
a.m.
Leading
Indicators
Tuesday
Jan.
23
10
a.m.
Richmond
Fed
Index
(January)
Earnings:
General
Electric
,
Synchrony
Financial
,
D.R.
Horton
,
Raytheon
Technologies
,
Verizon
Communications
,
Halliburton
,
Johnson
&
Johnson
,
Procter
&
Gamble
,
Lockheed
Martin
Wednesday
Jan.
24
9:45
a.m.
PMI
Composite
SA
preliminary
(January)
9:45
a.m.
S
&
P
PMI
Manufacturing
SA
preliminary
(January)
9:45
a.m.
S
&
P
PMI
Services
SA
preliminary
(January)
Earnings:
AT
&
T
,
Kimberly-Clark
,
Abbott
Laboratories
,
Freeport-McMoRan
,
Progressive
Thursday
Jan.
25
8
a.m.
Building
Permits
SAAR
final
(December)
8:30
a.m.
Chicago
Fed
National
Activity
Index
(December)
8:30
a.m.
Continuing
Jobless
Claims
(1/13)
8:30
a.m.
Durable
Orders
(December)
8:30
a.m.
GDP
(Q4)
8:30
a.m.
Initial
Claims
(1/20)
8:30
a.m.
Wholesale
Inventories
preliminary
(December)
10
a.m.
New
Home
Sales
(December)
11
a.m.
Kansas
City
Fed
Manufacturing
Index
(January)
Earnings:
Blackstone
,
Northrop
Grumman
,
Southwest
Airlines
,
American
Airlines
,
Comcast
Friday
Jan.
26
8:30
a.m.
PCE
(December)
8:30
a.m.
Personal
Income
(December)
10
a.m.
Pending
Home
Sales
(December)
Earnings:
Norfolk
Southern
,
American
Express
Disclosure:
Comcast
is
the
owner
of
NBCUniversal,
parent
company
of
CNBC.
