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Biotech
company
Viking
Therapeutics
has
emerged
as
a
strong
potential
entrant
—
or
takeover
target
—
in
the
budding
weight
loss
drug
market.
Viking
is
just
one
of
several
companies
racing
to
join
the
growing
space.
Some
analysts
say
the
market
could
be
worth
$100
billion
by
the
end
of
the
decade.
Viking
aims
to
compete
with
injectable
drugs
from
Eli
Lilly
and
Novo
Nordisk.
Their
treatments
sparked
the
weight
loss
drug
industry
gold
rush
over
the
past
year
despite
their
hefty
price
tags
and
barriers
to
insurance
coverage.
Some
Wall
Street
analysts
said
Viking’s
experimental
obesity
treatment
may
be
“best-in-class.”
In
a
midstage
trial,
an
injectable
version
of
Viking’s
drug
appeared
to
promote
even
greater
weight
loss
than
Eli
Lilly’s
Zepbound.
Viking
gave
a
first
glimpse
at
data
from
that
study
on
Tuesday,
and
its
shares
soared
120%. The
promising
results
make
the
company
an
impressive
potential
player
in
a
market
that
will
likely
have
room
for
more
entrants
in
the
coming
years.
Goldman
Sachs
projects
that
between
10
million
and
70
million
Americans
will
be
taking
weight
loss
drugs
by
2028.
Eli
Lilly
and
Novo
Nordisk
have
also
struggled
to
offer
enough
supply
of
their
treatments,
giving
other
companies
a
chance
to
win
market
share.
The
new
data
also
makes
Viking
a
more
attractive
deal
target
for
larger
companies
trying
to
break
into
the
space
or
expand
their
obesity
treatment
offerings.
It’s
too
early
to
say
whether
Viking’s
drug
could
have
an
edge
over
existing
or
developing
weight
loss
treatments.
It’s
difficult
to
compare
therapies
without
pitting
them
head
to
head
in
the
same
clinical
trial.
Viking
also
needs
to
conduct
a
late-stage
study
on
its
drug,
and
likely
won’t
launch
the
injection
until
the
later
part
of
the
decade.
The
small
company
faces
hurdles
to
entering
the
market,
such
as
manufacturing
enough
of
the
drug
to
meet
booming
demand.
But
an
acquisition
by
a
larger
company
could
help
solve
some
of
those
issues.
Data
suggests
Viking’s
drug
may
have
an
edge
Viking’s
phase
two
trial
followed
more
than
170
patients
who
are
overweight
or
obese.
They
received
different
dose
sizes
of
the
injectable
drug
or
a
placebo.
The
trial
did
not
directly
compare
Viking’s
treatment
to
other
drugs.
Still,
many
analysts
compared
Viking’s
injection
to
Eli
Lilly’s
Zepbound,
largely
because
they
work
the
same
way.
An
injection
pen
of
Zepbound,
Eli
Lilly’s
weight
loss
drug,
is
displayed
in
New
York
City
on
Dec.
11,
2023.
Brendan
Mcdermid
|
Reuters
Both
drugs
imitate
two
naturally
produced
gut
hormones
called
GLP-1
and
GIP.
GLP
helps
reduce
food
intake
and
appetite.
GIP,
which
also
suppresses
appetite,
may
also
improve
how
the
body
breaks
down
sugar
and
fat.
Meanwhile,
Novo
Nordisk’s
weight
loss
injection
Wegovy
only
targets
GLP-1.
Analysts
were
particularly
impressed
by
the
weight
patients
lost
after
they
took
the
highest
dose
of
Viking’s
drug.
Those
who
received
a
weekly
15
milligram
dose
of
the
treatment
lost
13.1%
of
their
body
weight
on
average
after
13
weeks
compared
to
those
who
took
the
placebo.
Notably,
there
was
no
evidence
of
a
plateau
in
weight
reduction
at
week
13
for
any
dose
of
the
drug.
That
suggests
that
“further
weight
loss
might
be
achieved”
by
keeping
patients
on
the
treatment
longer,
Viking
CEO
Brian
Lian
said
during
a
call
with
investors
on
Tuesday.
Viking’s
drug
data
shows
a
“best-in-class
profile”
among
both
approved
and
experimental
weight
loss
drugs
with
phase
two
trials,
William
Blair
analyst
Andy
Hsieh
wrote
in
a
note
Tuesday.
Eli
Lilly’s
Zepbound
generated
roughly
7%
weight
loss
relative
to
a
placebo
after
12
weeks
in
a
phase
three
clinical
trial,
Hsieh
noted.
Viking’s
drug
also
appears
to
top
Novo
Nordisk’s
weight
loss
injection
Wegovy,
according
to
a
separate
Tuesday
note
from
BTIG
analysts.
Based
on
chart
data
from
a
phase
three
trial,
the
analysts
estimated
that
Wegovy
caused
around
5%
weight
loss
at
13
weeks
compared
to
a
placebo.
Meanwhile,
several
analysts
estimated
that
some
doses
of
Eli
Lilly’s
experimental
injection,
retatrutide,
caused
between
9%
and
13%
weight
loss
relative
to
a
placebo
at
13
weeks
based
on
chart
data
from
a
midstage
trial.
The
majority
of
adverse
side
effects
that
patients
experienced
after
starting
Viking’s
drug
were
mild
or
moderate.
Many
of
those
instances
were
gastrointestinal,
which
is
common
across
all
weight
loss
and
diabetes
treatments.
Around
20%
of
patients
who
took
the
15
milligram
version
of
Viking’s
drug
discontinued
treatment
early
in
the
study.
That
compares
with
around
14%
of
those
taking
the
placebo
who
stopped
early
in
the
trial.
But
Jefferies
analyst
Akash
Tewari
wrote
in
a
note
Tuesday
that
Viking’s
trial
used
faster
“titration”
in
patients.
That
refers
to
increasing
the
dose
size
a
patient
takes
over
time
until
they
reach
a
target
dosage
level.
He
said
Viking
may
be
able
to
make
its
drug
easier
for
patients
to
tolerate
in
a
future
trial
with
slower
titration,
which
could
potentially
lower
the
treatment’s
efficacy.
Viking
still
has
a
long
way
to
go
Despite
the
compelling
data,
Viking
has
far
more
work
to
do
before
it
can
compete
in
the
weight
loss
drug
market.
The
company
plans
to
meet
with
the
U.S.
Food
and
Drug
Administration
later
this
year
to
discuss
a
clinical
development
plan
for
the
treatment.
Viking
CEO
Brian
Lian
told
investors
on
a
call
Tuesday
that
the
company
will
likely
conduct
another
phase
two
trial
that
could
last
six
to
nine
months.
Jefferies’
Tewari
estimates
that
Viking’s
treatment
won’t
reach
the
market
until
2029
or
later.
A
late-stage
trial
on
the
drug
could
be
lengthy.
Eli
Lilly’s
phase
three
study
on
Zepbound
lasted
two
and
a
half
to
three
years.
The
late
entrance
of
Viking’s
drug
is
one
reason
why
Tewari
doesn’t
believe
the
company
will
meaningfully
cut
into
Eli
Lilly’s
market.
The
pharmaceutical
giant
could
also
launch
a
slate
of
other
weight
loss
treatments
over
the
next
few
years
that
may
have
advantages
over
Zepbound,
whether
they
offer
more
weight
loss
or
convenience. They
include
Eli
Lilly’s
experimental
pill
orforglipron
and
the
widely
watched
retatrutide,
which
mimics
three
gut
hormones
instead
of
two.
An
Eli
Lilly
and
Company
pharmaceutical
manufacturing
plant
is
pictured
in
Branchburg,
New
Jersey,
on
March
5,
2021.
Mike
Segar
|
Reuters
Analysts
from
Deutsche
Bank
added
in
a
note
Tuesday
that
manufacturing
the
treatments
“at
scale
to
meet
outsized
demand
has
proven
to
be
no
easy
feat.”
They
said
that
gives
Eli
Lilly
and
Novo
Nordisk
a
“defensive
moat”
against
rivals.
Viking
acknowledged
this
hurdle
on
the
call
Tuesday.
Lian
said
the
company
has
enough
supply
of
the
drug
to
support
its
clinical
trials,
but
its
manufacturing
capacity
is
insufficient
for
a
commercial
rollout.
But
Lian
noted
that
the
company
is
“spending
a
lot
of
time”
evaluating
multiple
manufacturing
processes
to
understand
“what’s
fastest,
what’s
highest
yielding,
what’s
cheapest
and
what’s
most
scalable.”
Partnerships,
buyouts
are
on
the
table
Viking’s
impressive
data
could
make
it
an
attractive
target
for
a
takeover
or
partnership
with
a
large
pharmaceutical
company.
That
could
give
Viking
the
commercial
and
manufacturing
capabilities
needed
to
compete
in
the
weight
loss
drug
market.
William
Blair’s
Hsieh
added
that
large
pharmaceutical
companies
could
maximize
the
value
of
Viking’s
treatment
because
they
could
better
navigate
the
rebate
and
reimbursement
landscape
for
weight
loss
drugs.
Some
analysts
expect
other
companies
to
have
high
interest
in
Viking.
“This
very
well
could
be
on
the
shopping
list
for
any
large-cap
pharma
or
biotech
company
that
wants
to
be
in
the
obesity
market
but
currently
doesn’t
have
a
drug.
There
are
plenty
of
them
out
there,”
Oppenheimer
analyst
Jay
Olson
told
CNBC.
He
added
that
a
company
could
“pay
a
pretty
significant
premium
for
Viking
and
pick
this
up
…
for
a
relatively
low
price
compared
to
the
potential
that
exists
for
a
drug
like
this.”
As
of
Friday,
Viking
had
a
market
cap
of
more
than
$8.5
billion.
Injection
pens
of
Novo
Nordisk’s
weight
loss
drug
Wegovy
are
shown
in
this
photo
in
Oslo,
Norway,
on
Nov.
21,
2023.
Victoria
Klesty
|
Reuters
Viking
is
an
appealing
deal
target
because
of
more
than
just
the
new
data.
Wall
Street
is
eager
for
the
company
to
release
early-stage
trial
results
on
an
oral
version
of
its
weight
loss
treatment
this
quarter.
The
BTIG
analysts
noted
that
the
intellectual
property
coverage
for
both
versions
of
the
drug
extends
beyond
2040,
“boding
well”
for
potential
partnership
discussions.
Viking
also
has
other
drugs
in
development,
including
a
promising
oral
treatment
for
a
certain
form
of
liver
disease.
Eli
Lilly,
Novo
Nordisk
and
other
drugmakers
are
also
racing
to
see
whether
their
drugs
can
treat
that
same
condition.
Viking
hasn’t
disclosed
any
details
about
its
discussions
with
potential
partners.
But
the
company
has
“always
been
open
to
partner
discussions
since
day
one,
so
we’re
always
opportunistically
evaluating
whatever
is
presented
to
us,”
Lian
said
during
Viking’s
fourth-quarter
earnings
call
last
month.
Other
drugmakers
have
pursued
deals
over
the
past
year
to
carve
out
a
space
in
the
weight
loss
drug
market.
Swiss
company
Roche
said
it
would
buy
the
privately
held
U.S.
obesity
drugmaker
Carmot
Therapeutics
for
$2.7
billion.
AstraZeneca
signed
a
licensing
agreement
with
Chinese
biotech
company
Eccogene
to
develop
an
obesity
pill.
Even
Novo
Nordisk
and
Eli
Lilly
have
snapped
up
smaller
obesity
drug
companies
this
year
to
maintain
their
dominance
in
the
market.
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