With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine’s war against Russia could get even harder in 2024

At
the
start
of
2023,
hopes
were
high
that
a
much-vaunted
Ukrainian
counteroffensive
—
expected
to
be
launched
in
the
spring
—
would
change
the
dial
in
the
war
against
Russia.

It
didn’t,
and
the
prospect
of
a
breakthrough
in
2024
is
also
unlikely,
military
experts
and
defense
analysts
told
CNBC.

They
predict
intense
fighting
is
likely
to
continue
into
the
next
year
but
say
Kyiv’s
forces
are
unlikely
to
launch
any
more
counteroffensives.
Russia,
meanwhile,
is
likely
to
focus
on
consolidating
the
territory
it
has
already
seized,
particularly
in
eastern
Ukraine.

Away
from
the
battlefield,
military
experts
said
that
the
trajectory
the
Russia-Ukraine
war
takes
in
2024
will
mostly
be
dictated
thousands
of
miles
away
in
the
U.S.,
Ukraine’s
largest
military
supporter,
and
whether
aid
declines
in
the
run-up
—
and
following
—
the
U.S.
presidential
election.

“War
is
an
uncertain
endeavor,”
retired Army
Lt. General
Stephen
Twitty,
former
deputy
commander
of
U.S.
European
Command,
told
CNBC.

“Russia
can
win
the
war,
or
the
Ukrainians
can
win
the
war.
And,
as
you’re
seeing
things
now,
if
you
really
think
about
it,
what
has
been
achieved
this
year?
Very
little
has
been
achieved
by
Russia,
and
you
can
say
the
same
thing
for
the
Ukrainians,”
he
said.

“We’re
in
this
situation
now
where
if
there’s
not
a
clear
winner,
there’s
going
to
be
a
stalemate,
and
there’s
going
to
be,
perhaps,
a
future
frozen
conflict.
What
can
tilt
the
balance,
in
my
view,
is
if
the
Ukrainians
are
not
resupplied
and
they’re
not
re-funded
and
they
don’t
get
the
equipment
and
people
that
they
need.
Then
this
war
could
tilt
to
the
Russians,”
Twitty
noted.

A
year
ago,
Ukraine’s
international
military
support
was
solid
with
NATO
pledging
to
support
Kyiv
for
“as
long
as
it
takes”
as
it
defended
itself
against
Russia’s
invasion
launched
in
Feb.
2022.

Over
the
summer,
however,
the
challenge
facing
Ukraine’s
forces
was
glaringly
obvious
as
they
struggled
to
break
through
heavily-fortified
Russian
positions
and
lines
of
defenses
along
a
swathe
of
the
600-mile
long
frontline
across
the
southern
and
east
of
the
country.

After
liberating
a
handful
of
villages
in
the
summer,
Ukrainian
and
Russian
forces
have
been
caught
in
largely
attritional
battles,
with
neither
side
making
significant
gains.

Ukrainian
military
officials
have
conceded
that
hopes
and
expectations
of
a
great
breakthrough
in
the
counteroffensive
were
not
met.
Still,
Ukraine’s
leadership
says
steep
losses
have
been
inflicted
on
Russian
forces
and
that
its
forces
have
made
vital
progress
in
other
areas
such
as
the
Black
Sea
with
Ukraine’s
audacious
attacks
on
Russian
bases
and
assets
in
Crimea
this
summer
prompting
the
Russian
navy
to
withdraw
a
number
of
warships
from
Sevastopol,

handing
Kyiv
a
victory
in
the
Battle
of
the
Black
Sea.

Weather
conditions
are
deteriorating
in
Ukraine,
with mud,
freezing
rain,
snow,
and
ice
making
offensive
and
reconnaissance
operations
challenging.
Intense
fighting
continues
nonetheless,
and
particularly
around
Bakhmut
and
Avdiivka
in
eastern
Ukraine
where
Russian
forces
are
conducting
offensive
operations
and
have
made
some
recent,
confirmed
advances.

Analysts
at
the
Institute
for
the
Study
of
War
(ISW)
noted
last
week
that
Russian
forces
have
likely
committed
to
offensive
operations
in
multiple
sectors
of
the
front,
during
a
period
of
the
most
challenging
weather
of
the
fall-winter
season,
“in
an
effort
to
seize
and
retain
the
initiative”
prior
to
the
Russian
presidential
elections
in
March
2024.

In
the
meantime,

the
ISW
noted
in
analysis,
“Ukrainian
forces
establish
and
consolidate
defensive
positions
to
conserve
manpower
and
resources
for
future
offensive
efforts.”

Ukrainian
forces
have
adopted
a
more
defensive
stance
as
circumstances
dictate;
a
senior
army
general
warned
last
week
that
frontline

Ukrainian
troops
face
artillery
shortages
and
have
scaled
back
some
military
operations
because
of
a
shortfall
of
foreign
assistance.

Another
year
of
war
in
Europe
has
undoubtedly
drained
Western
military
resources
and
the
political
appetite
to
maintain
massive
amounts
of
military
aid
for
Ukraine.

Ongoing
funding
for
Ukraine
is
far
from
secure
in
2024
given
the
fact
that
the
U.S.
presidential
election
could
herald
a
seismic
change
in
the
attitude
toward,
and
support
for
Kyiv.

Specifically,
all
eyes
are
on
former
U.S.
president
and
Republican
frontrunner
Donald
Trump,
who
cultivated
close
relations
with
his
Russian
counterpart
Vladimir
Putin
during
his
presidency.

There
are
concerns
that,
given
Trump’s
previous
good
relations
with
Moscow
and
“America
First”
policy,
aid
for
Ukraine
could
be
shelved
rapidly.
Defense
analysts
agree
that
much
of
the
outlook
for
Ukraine
is
dependent
on
the
outcome
of
the
U.S.
vote.

“I
think
it’s
important
to
understand
the
extent
to
which
Ukraine
is
reliant
on
the
U.S.
right
now,
because
it’s
quite
significantly
more
reliant
on
the
U.S.
than
it
is
on
the
EU,”
Sam
Cranny-Evans,
defense
analyst
at
the
Royal
United
Services
Institute
defense
think
tank
told
CNBC.

“If
the
U.S.
election
goes
in
a
way
that
is
not
in
Ukraine’s
favor,
coupled
with
the
fact
that
the
EU
is
not
really
stepping
up
to
the
plate
—
it’s
ammunition
production
is
so
far
off
what
it
should
have
been
by
now
to
give
Ukraine
a
hope
of
surviving
and
a
hope
of
victory
—
it’s
not
a
very
cheery
prediction
for
2024.”

Rumblings
of
discontent
over
continuing
Ukraine
aid
have
been
heard
in
some
Republican
quarters
for
months
now,
as
well
as
in
eastern
Europe.

Former
U.S.
ambassador
to
NATO
Kurt
Volker
told
CNBC
he
believes
American
and
EU
aid
packages
for
Ukraine
will
be
approved
come
January,
saying
he
believed
this
funding
would
tide
Ukraine
over
for
another
year,
militarily.
Volker
said
that
aid
packages
must
include
more
advanced
weaponry
for
Ukraine,
however,
like
F-16
fighter
jets
which
have
been
pledged
by
Norway,
Denmark
and
the
Netherlands.

Ukrainian
pilots
are
beginning
their
training
on
the
jets
now
but
it
could
be
a
number
of
months
before
they’re
deployed
in
Ukraine.
The
U.S.
is
not
providing
F-16s
to
Ukraine
but
has
authorized
allies
to
provide
their
own
jets.

“A
couple
of
things
ought
to
change,”
Volker
told
CNBC.
“We
ought
to
lift
restrictions
on
the
weapons
we’re
providing.
We
still
don’t
provide
the
longest
range
missiles
and
we
still
have
not
delivered
any
Western
aircraft
in
Ukraine
yet.
Those
things
have
to
happen.
And
I
think
we
have
to
try
to
give
the
Ukrainians
more
of
a
technological
advantage,”
he
noted.

Volker
believes
that
a
Trump
presidency
might
not
be
the
catastrophe
for
Ukraine
that
is
feared,
but
said
it
would
make
future
funding
uncertain.

“I
doubt
that
even
if
Trump
were
elected
that
he
would
abandon
support
for
Ukraine
overall,
because
it
would
be
a
disaster
for
U.S.
interests,
and
it
would
appear
to
be
a
failure.
You’d
have
these
images
of
Russians
over-running
places,
and
brutality
and
so
forth,
so
I
don’t
think
he
wants
that.
But
it’s
not
clear
exactly
what
he
would
do
to
try
to
end
the
war.”

For
his
part,
Trump
has
said
that he’d
be
able
to
resolve
the Ukraine
war “in
one day”
if
he
was
re-elected,
saying
he’d
convince
the
leaders
of
Ukraine
and
Russia
to
make
a
deal.

Russia
has
shown
that
it
is
committed
to
a
long
conflict
in
Ukraine
and
that
it
has
the
capacity
to
send
hundreds
of
thousands
of
men
to
war.
Putin
claimed

in
his
end-of
year
press
conference
that
617,000
troops
were
currently
active
in
Ukraine.

Putin
denied
a
second
wave
of
mobilization
was
necessary
for
now,
but
in
early
December
he

signed
a decree
ordering
the
military to
increase
the
number
of
Russian
armed
forces
personnel
by 170,000,
bringing
the
total
number
of
troops
to
1.32
million.

Russia
is
also
massively
boosting
military
spending
in
2024,

with
almost
30%
of
its
fiscal
expenditure
to
be
directed
toward
the
armed
forces.
Its
military-industrial
complex

has
also
ramped
up
the
production
of
hardware
from
drones
to
aircraft.

Ukraine’s
defense
ministry
said
last
week
that
its
main
goal
in
2024
is
to
boost
its
domestic
defense
industry
in
the
face
of
uncertain
future
supplies
from
its
Western
allies.
It
has
also
changed
conscription
laws,
foreseeing
the
need
to
bolster
its
forces,
which
are
dwarfed
in
size
by
Russia’s
but
are
more
highly
trained
and
equipped.
Ukrainian
President
Volodymyr
Zelenskyy
said
last
week
that the
military had
asked
for
up
to
500,000
additional
conscripts
but
said
he
needed
to
hear
“more
arguments”
to
support
the
sensitive
and
costly
proposal.

With
both
Ukraine
and
Russia
investing
heavily
in
the
war,
it’s
unlikely
there
will
be
any
negotiations
to
end
the
war
or
agree
a
cease-fire.
Defense
analysts
argue
that
neither
side
would
want
to
go
into
negotiations
unless
they’re
in
a
position
of
strength
and
able
to
dictate
terms.

“In
the
case
of
a
Republican
winning
the
presidential
election
next
year,
especially
if
that’s
Donald
Trump,
who
seems
to
be
the
front
runner,
and
[if]
funding
is
decreased
substantially,
then
there
will
be
increased
pressure
on
Ukraine
to
negotiate,”
Mario
Bikarski,
a
Europe
and
Russia
analyst
at
the
Economist
Intelligence
Unit
(EIU),
told
CNBC.

“Of
course,
Ukraine
currently
doesn’t
want
to
negotiate
…
but
given
the
circumstances,
it
will
have
little
choice
but
to
comply
with
that.
And
then
the
question
also
remains
if
Russia
will
be
willing
to
negotiate
because
if
there
are
signs
that
the
West
will
stop
supporting
Ukraine,
and
Ukraine
will
be
coerced
into
these
negotiations,
Russia
might
see
this
as
another
window
of
opportunity
to
consolidate
a
lot
more
gains.”

Defense
experts
told
CNBC
their
baseline
scenario
for
2024
was
a
continuation
of
the
current
intensity
of
fighting
but
the
same
sense
of
stalemate
with
neither
side
able
to
progress
much
on
the
ground
and
take
or
reclaim
territory.